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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Logan Allen

Logan Allen

SP·CLE
Compare
Compare
BF
19
K %
36.8%
BB %
5.3%
xwOBA
.306
PTS
13
PPG
13.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj25966.044004.354.3519.4%8.9%10.5%————993.94
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

19 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
1
89.1
FB Spin
19
2163
2026
1
0
4.0
0
0
0
0
0.00
0.35
36.8%
5.3%
31.5%
.306
.455
66.7%
45.5%
13
13.00
20253029156.7811004.254.3418.0%9.1%8.9%.328.29770.6%45.6%2107.00
20242121102.085006.005.9318.2%9.5%8.7%.370.32073.7%44.2%1034.90
20232424125.378003.814.0322.1%8.9%13.2%.326.31478.8%42.7%2098.71
Extension
30
6.31
Results
xwOBA
69
.306
Barrel %
0
18.2
Hard-Hit %
0
54.5
K %
99
36.8
BB %
92
5.3
Chase %
6
25.0
Whiff %
13
18.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
98
≈ 43th pctl
Stuff+
72
if they swing
Command+
96
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
79
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
16.5%
14 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.005 better than avg · 23 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.069
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.039 worse than avg · 6 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 85 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.