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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #23 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Logan Gilbert
Logan Gilbert · #23
V⁻ —VORP 55V⁺ —
Logan Gilbert

Logan Gilbert

SP·SEA
Compare
Compare
BF
300
K %
25.7%
BB %
5.7%
xwOBA
.317
PTS
171
PPG
12.21
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919102.064003.423.3526.5%5.9%20.5%————23712.48
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
63
94.4
FB Spin
22
2171
Extension
2026
14
14
79.7
4
4
0
0
3.62
4.03
25.7%
5.7%
20.0%
.317
.266
80.8%
36.5%
171
12.21
20253029151.777003.563.4532.3%5.8%26.5%.276.28277.0%39.8%36712.23
20243434213.3912003.253.2827.3%4.6%22.7%.278.23670.6%45.2%51215.06
20233434198.7147003.673.6524.5%4.7%19.8%.296.27075.3%42.2%46113.56
20223636201.0137003.453.5822.7%6.4%16.3%.319.29476.5%37.8%43011.94
20212424119.365004.683.6625.4%5.6%19.8%.314.29367.9%33.4%2279.46
99
7.47
Results
xwOBA
57
.317
Barrel %
14
11.0
Hard-Hit %
10
46.0
K %
79
25.7
BB %
88
5.7
Chase %
55
31.4
Whiff %
81
26.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
118
≈ 96th pctl
Stuff+
111
if they swing
Command+
110
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
109
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.9%
50 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.029
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.014 better than avg · 160 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.019
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.011 better than avg · 21 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 460 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
31.7%95.42108+17.4+3.87.5715.5%60.3%30.1%27.6%9.1%0.297
SliderSL
18.9%86.1

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE45°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLFSCUFCCH
Usage32%19%16%13%13%7%
MPH95.486.180.380.591.085.0
RHP Avg95.086.786.780.289.886.9
2071
-1.9
-1.3
7.47
33.3%
52.9%
34.5%
36.6%
24.0%
0.329
Split-FingerFS
16.1%80.3650-3.2+2.97.3440.5%29.7%23.0%32.7%21.8%0.185
CurveballCU
13.4%80.52362-3.5-16.07.4433.3%51.6%35.5%30.0%16.7%0.306
CutterFC
13.2%91.02345+12.2-4.47.4210.7%55.7%27.9%25.9%25.0%0.317
ChangeupCH
6.7%85.01419+3.2+15.87.2935.7%41.9%29.0%27.8%29.4%0.263

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″FC · 19″CU · 24″CH · 24″SL · 25″FS · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 23″FC · 34″CU · 62″CH · 49″SL · 46″FS · 58″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.35′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLFSCUFCCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLFSCUFCCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLFSCUFCCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.