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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #16 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Logan Henderson
Logan Henderson · #16
V⁻ —VORP 71V⁺ —
Logan Henderson

Logan Henderson

SP·MIL
Compare
Compare
BF
91
K %
33.0%
BB %
6.6%
xwOBA
.270
PTS
66
PPG
13.20
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj241578.075003.943.8725.5%7.6%17.9%————1666.92
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

91 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
18
91.4
FB Spin
81
2380
2026
5
5
23.0
2
1
0
0
2.74
2.40
33.0%
6.6%
26.4%
.270
.308
80.2%
18.5%
66
13.20
20255525.330001.782.9833.3%8.1%25.2%.300.25596.2%22.4%8917.80
Extension
22
6.20
Results
xwOBA
92
.270
Barrel %
34
9.3
Hard-Hit %
99
29.6
K %
99
33.0
BB %
76
6.6
Chase %
53
31.0
Whiff %
69
24.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
124
≈ 99th pctl
Stuff+
90
if they swing
Command+
116
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
106
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
6.6%
4 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.024
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.018 better than avg · 20 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
—
RV per pitch · league 0.029
— on avg · 0 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 61 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
54.3%93.02390+17.8+10.86.2133.3%36.8%26.3%33.3%28.6%0.277
ChangeupCH
25.7%84.1

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE31°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHFCSL
Usage54%26%17%3%
MPH93.084.187.081.3
RHP Avg95.086.989.886.7
2609
+7.3
+19.9
6.14
33.3%
66.7%
33.3%
33.3%
33.3%
0.262
CutterFC
17.1%87.02332+13.3+0.36.220.0%66.7%16.7%50.0%——
SliderSL
2.9%81.32451-3.2-9.66.20—0.0%0.0%0.0%——

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 14″FC · 18″CH · 18″SL · 21″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 30″FC · 42″CH · 54″SL · 60″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (3.92′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHFCSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHFCSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHFCSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.