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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #25 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Logan Webb
Logan Webb · #25
V⁻ —VORP 52V⁺ —
Logan Webb

Logan Webb

SP·SFG
Compare
Compare
BF
278
K %
20.9%
BB %
6.8%
xwOBA
.313
PTS
115
PPG
10.45
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2020122.095003.383.0421.9%6.1%15.7%————25812.91
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
26
92.0
FB Spin
4
2047
Extension
2026
11
11
67.3
3
4
0
0
4.01
3.17
20.9%
6.8%
14.1%
.313
.295
67.6%
58.2%
115
10.45
20253635213.71511013.162.5326.1%5.4%20.7%.296.34374.4%54.2%48313.42
20243534210.01310003.903.0020.4%5.9%14.5%.328.32169.3%57.2%37810.80
20233434221.01213003.223.0022.8%3.6%19.2%.297.30774.5%62.7%46713.74
20223434199.31510003.033.1220.7%6.2%14.5%.301.29471.9%57.8%42712.56
20213130174.0143012.692.4226.5%6.0%20.5%.278.29875.8%62.2%48215.55
2020131154.334005.474.0818.5%9.7%8.8%.350.34562.5%53.0%534.08
20198839.723005.224.0121.3%8.0%13.3%.347.33365.4%48.4%475.88
85
6.81
Results
xwOBA
60
.313
Barrel %
85
6.1
Hard-Hit %
8
46.4
K %
43
20.9
BB %
74
6.8
Chase %
77
33.0
Whiff %
23
19.5
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
98
≈ 43th pctl
Stuff+
105
if they swing
Command+
98
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
100
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.7%
55 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.045
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.003 worse than avg · 169 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.023
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.007 better than avg · 28 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 565 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
39.0%92.31934+0.8+16.46.8210.6%59.4%28.9%18.4%18.2%0.365
ChangeupCH
23.2%86.1

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE21°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SICHSTFFFC
Usage39%23%21%9%8%
MPH92.386.184.492.691.1
RHP Avg94.386.983.395.089.8
1456
-5.8
+9.4
6.84
23.8%
31.5%
21.6%
50.0%
20.8%
0.286
SweeperST
21.1%84.42555+0.6-14.46.6414.3%47.5%29.7%15.1%27.3%0.348
4-Seam FastballFF
8.8%92.62048+10.3+9.76.8425.9%38.1%21.4%46.2%17.4%0.250
CutterFC
7.9%91.12240+7.4+1.36.7625.0%42.1%18.4%22.7%0.0%0.407

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 13″FC · 17″SI · 18″ST · 21″CH · 21″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 30″FC · 36″SI · 32″ST · 51″CH · 45″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.05′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SICHSTFFFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SICHSTFFFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SICHSTFFFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.