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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #12 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Louis Varland
Louis Varland · #12
V⁻ —VORP 46V⁺ —
Louis Varland

Louis Varland

RP·TOR
Compare
Compare
BF
141
K %
34.0%
BB %
7.1%
xwOBA
.218
PTS
196
PPG
5.94
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj43043.0321633.203.1425.9%7.2%18.7%————1864.33
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

141 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
98
98.3
FB Spin
45
2251
2026
33
0
36.7
3
1
12
5
0.74
1.30
34.0%
7.1%
26.9%
.218
.317
80.6%
61.0%
196
5.94
202591290.7440253.083.4225.3%7.4%17.9%.313.29478.7%53.3%2492.74
202418958.707008.595.8620.6%6.7%13.9%.358.36558.0%43.2%-20-1.11
2023191068.743044.594.8225.0%6.0%19.0%.331.28780.2%45.4%1367.16
20225526.012003.814.2919.8%5.7%14.1%.335.29780.3%38.5%408.00
Extension
90
6.89
Results
xwOBA
100
.218
Barrel %
100
1.2
Hard-Hit %
86
34.1
K %
99
34.0
BB %
69
7.1
Chase %
94
35.2
Whiff %
67
24.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
120
≈ 98th pctl
Stuff+
122
if they swing
Command+
119
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
123
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.7%
11 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.019
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.023 better than avg · 60 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.020
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.009 better than avg · 14 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 194 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
42.3%98.22265+16.5+8.06.9117.1%58.4%28.6%21.9%31.0%0.158
Knuckle CurveKC
33.0%87.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE40°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFKCSLCHSI
Usage42%33%12%7%6%
MPH98.287.391.792.395.7
RHP Avg95.083.086.786.994.3
2437
-6.8
-4.4
6.75
41.4%
33.3%
31.7%
37.5%
23.8%
0.323
SliderSL
11.5%91.72446+6.5-4.76.720.0%42.9%19.0%8.3%0.0%0.069
ChangeupCH
7.1%92.31636+2.2+12.56.9157.1%38.5%46.2%50.0%50.0%0.196
SinkerSI
6.0%95.72082+10.1+16.97.070.0%36.4%18.2%14.3%—0.168

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SL · 25″SI · 21″CH · 24″KC · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 18″SL · 33″SI · 22″CH · 30″KC · 45″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (3.96′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFKCSLCHSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFKCSLCHSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFKCSLCHSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.