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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

OF·ARI
Compare
Compare
PA
593
H
144
HR
24
AVG
.261
xwOBA
.326
PPG
2.28
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202625102.228.290.304.076.29018.6%7.8%10.8%11361.44—
2025133547.248
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
34
.326
xBA
53
.258
xSLG
.299
.417
.169
.315
13.9%
5.7%
8.2%
19
10
325
2.44
—
2024138554.278.324.434.156.32618.2%5.2%13.0%1883202.32—
2023168593.261.310.462.201.32617.4%5.6%11.8%2473832.28—
2022132494.291.344.399.108.32716.8%6.3%10.5%532732.07—
2021148541.276.322.466.190.34118.9%5.9%13.0%2113262.20—
202058225.306.350.531.225.34721.3%6.2%15.1%1131432.47—
201988343.277.330.541.264.34025.1%5.8%19.3%2062372.69—
201864263.281.312.446.165.32322.4%3.4%19.0%1111292.02—
51
.443
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
53
89.7
Median EV
74
94.2
90th % EV
19
103.5
Barrel %
44
8.4
Hard-Hit %
70
46.0
Sweet-Spot %
53
36.7
Bat Speed
Avg
17
68.0
Median
18
69.6
90th %
14
73.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
33
30.2
Whiff %
83
16.7
K %
70
17.4
BB %
11
5.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
101
≈ 52th pctl
Chase cost
-44.2r
431 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-19.0r
351 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
49.4%
2,510 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.52
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
41+0%6+17%64215+29%7+36%14+55%22+18%11+64%14+22%9+50%14-10%30-26%54-23%53-29%51+52%31+20%10+30%27+10%51-32%71-24%68-22%51+39%31+22%9+28%29+34%41+22%46+23%44+32%25+36%114+0%10+6%16+44%16+0%7+17%631CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000