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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

OF·ARI
Compare
Compare
PA
554
H
143
HR
18
AVG
.278
xwOBA
.326
PPG
2.32
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202625102.228.290.304.076.29018.6%7.8%10.8%11361.44—
2025133547.248
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
36
.326
xBA
77
.267
xSLG
.299
.417
.169
.315
13.9%
5.7%
8.2%
19
10
325
2.44
—
2024138554.278.324.434.156.32618.2%5.2%13.0%1883202.32—
2023168593.261.310.462.201.32617.4%5.6%11.8%2473832.28—
2022132494.291.344.399.108.32716.8%6.3%10.5%532732.07—
2021148541.276.322.466.190.34118.9%5.9%13.0%2113262.20—
202058225.306.350.531.225.34721.3%6.2%15.1%1131432.47—
201988343.277.330.541.264.34025.1%5.8%19.3%2062372.69—
201864263.281.312.446.165.32322.4%3.4%19.0%1111292.02—
52
.437
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
31
88.4
Median EV
32
91.5
90th % EV
41
104.3
Barrel %
27
6.7
Hard-Hit %
35
40.0
Sweet-Spot %
43
35.3
Bat Speed
Avg
25
68.7
Median
25
70.2
90th %
22
74.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
17
33.0
Whiff %
72
18.8
K %
65
18.2
BB %
8
5.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
97
≈ 38th pctl
Chase cost
-40.1r
389 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-15.5r
282 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
51.0%
2,114 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.63
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
233333+33%9+23%13+0%15+25%20+24%21+44%92+43%7-3%32-18%45-20%49-27%37+25%24+13%16+58%26+15%55-29%73-19%70-26%53+31%29+53%15+17%29+34%35+6%49+19%37+10%31+33%12+17%6+8%13+29%14+15%20+29%14+0%1034CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000