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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

OF·ARI
Compare
Compare
PA
547
H
124
HR
19
AVG
.248
xwOBA
.315
PPG
2.44
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202625102.228.290.304.076.29018.6%7.8%10.8%11361.44—
2025133547.248
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
21
.315
xBA
58
.261
xSLG
.299
.417
.169
.315
13.9%
5.7%
8.2%
19
10
325
2.44
—
2024138554.278.324.434.156.32618.2%5.2%13.0%1883202.32—
2023168593.261.310.462.201.32617.4%5.6%11.8%2473832.28—
2022132494.291.344.399.108.32716.8%6.3%10.5%532732.07—
2021148541.276.322.466.190.34118.9%5.9%13.0%2113262.20—
202058225.306.350.531.225.34721.3%6.2%15.1%1131432.47—
201988343.277.330.541.264.34025.1%5.8%19.3%2062372.69—
201864263.281.312.446.165.32322.4%3.4%19.0%1111292.02—
42
.425
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
18
87.8
Median EV
17
90.5
90th % EV
19
103.2
Barrel %
26
7.2
Hard-Hit %
20
38.3
Sweet-Spot %
73
38.1
Bat Speed
Avg
23
68.8
Median
23
70.3
90th %
22
74.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
14
34.5
Whiff %
74
18.9
K %
87
13.9
BB %
12
5.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
99
≈ 48th pctl
Chase cost
-37.8r
379 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-13.7r
257 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
52.2%
2,018 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.55
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
13+50%84233+30%20+38%21+21%34-3%30+33%21+25%8+35%17+26%27-31%51-28%50-18%44+46%35+25%12+47%30+32%53-24%67-28%71-16%61+9%23+18%11+20%15+44%32+10%40+7%28+25%20+11%9+25%8+10%10+36%11+0%7+27%11+25%821CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000