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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #164 of 166

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito · #60
V⁻ —VORP -86V⁺ —
Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito

SP·SDP
Compare
Compare
BF
138
K %
13.0%
BB %
16.7%
xwOBA
.358
PTS
13
PPG
1.86
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj181891.056004.774.7519.4%9.6%9.8%————1226.78
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

138 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
9
90.8
FB Spin
15
2144
2026
7
5
29.7
2
3
0
0
5.16
6.07
13.0%
16.7%
-3.7%
.358
.304
73.4%
31.3%
13
1.86
20252626145.0104003.414.1319.6%9.1%10.5%.347.27376.7%39.5%28911.12
20233535194.0816004.785.0025.7%9.2%16.5%.331.27072.9%36.1%3028.63
20223333173.01210004.793.9625.4%8.7%16.7%.324.34271.2%39.0%2858.64
20213434193.3139003.443.6728.0%7.1%20.9%.283.26577.6%34.2%46013.53
2020131379.353003.292.9433.7%9.7%24.0%.270.24469.8%44.1%23217.85
20193129181.7149013.673.4632.3%8.1%24.2%.284.27676.2%36.3%47215.23
20183333179.71113005.915.3716.1%11.6%4.5%.351.26463.8%45.1%1644.97
20177745.333002.384.8918.9%6.7%12.2%.306.18992.0%46.9%10314.71
20166421.301006.758.1610.9%11.9%-1.0%.426.27171.9%41.6%00.00
Extension
93
6.97
Results
xwOBA
10
.358
Barrel %
97
4.2
Hard-Hit %
12
43.8
K %
1
13.0
BB %
0
16.7
Chase %
0
18.6
Whiff %
61
23.3