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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

1B / 2B·SFG
Compare
Compare
PA
617
H
203
HR
10
AVG
.354
xwOBA
.362
PPG
2.73
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202665282.324.369.431.107.3104.6%5.3%-0.7%251822.80—
2025161677.291
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
78
.362
xBA
98
.327
xSLG
.330
.391
.100
.303
3.1%
5.0%
-1.9%
8
12
400
2.48
—
2024159672.314.347.392.078.3324.3%3.6%0.7%494072.56—
2023155617.354.395.469.115.3625.5%5.7%-0.2%1034232.73—
2022155603.316.377.420.104.3437.1%8.3%-1.2%844072.63—
2021129480.294.361.375.081.34210.0%9.0%1.0%232772.15—
202035121.321.367.402.081.3579.1%6.6%2.5%00742.11—
201994366.334.402.439.105.3367.9%9.8%-1.9%422442.60—
62
.461
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
20
88.0
Median EV
22
91.0
90th % EV
1
98.7
Barrel %
6
3.5
Hard-Hit %
2
25.7
Sweet-Spot %
98
45.2
Bat Speed
Avg
1
62.5
Median
0
63.3
90th %
0
68.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
24
31.8
Whiff %
99
6.6
K %
99
5.5
BB %
13
5.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
107
≈ 75th pctl
Chase cost
-38.4r
410 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-13.1r
315 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.7%
2,245 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.29
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
4+10%10+29%7+9%11+7%14+0%83+36%11+30%27+14%36+30%50+38%34+36%224+47%19-9%53-15%82-30%79-6%67+40%20+31%13+44%18+3%30-30%61-13%76-17%42+54%135+36%14+69%16+24%21+47%17+0%8+46%13224+33%653CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000