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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 2B peers

Rank #3 of 45

Each bar is one 2B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez · #3
V⁻ 5VORP 46V⁺ 63
Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

1B / 2B·SFG
Compare
Compare
PA
282
H
82
HR
2
AVG
.324
xwOBA
.310
PPG
2.80
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj93400.302.342.386.084.3274.4%5.7%-1.3%362372.55—
202665282.324
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
27
.310
xBA
90
.292
xSLG
.369
.431
.107
.310
4.6%
5.3%
-0.7%
2
5
182
2.80
—
2025161677.291.330.391.100.3033.1%5.0%-1.9%8124002.48—
2024159672.314.347.392.078.3324.3%3.6%0.7%494072.56—
2023155617.354.395.469.115.3625.5%5.7%-0.2%1034232.73—
2022155603.316.377.420.104.3437.1%8.3%-1.2%844072.63—
2021129480.294.361.375.081.34210.0%9.0%1.0%232772.15—
202035121.321.367.402.081.3579.1%6.6%2.5%00742.11—
201994366.334.402.439.105.3367.9%9.8%-1.9%422442.60—
17
.373
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
17
86.6
Median EV
16
89.3
90th % EV
1
96.0
Barrel %
1
0.4
Hard-Hit %
1
22.3
Sweet-Spot %
93
43.0
Bat Speed
Avg
1
62.0
Median
0
61.3
90th %
0
66.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
23
34.4
Whiff %
99
8.0
K %
99
4.6
BB %
9
5.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
104
≈ 67th pctl
Chase cost
-5.8r
43 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.1r
55 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.6%
339 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.35
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1523325+29%7-11%9+0%14+29%7+17%63+27%15-11%9-33%21-25%28-29%21+40%104+33%6-7%14-33%33-25%24-5%20433+71%74-27%11543111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 339