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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #61 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo · #60
V⁻ —VORP 2V⁺ —
Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo

SP·SEA
Compare
Compare
BF
272
K %
22.4%
BB %
8.5%
xwOBA
.343
PTS
78
PPG
6.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj301498.065003.873.8222.6%7.1%15.5%————1896.30
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
77
95.2
FB Spin
36
2223
Extension
2026
13
11
61.0
2
5
0
1
5.16
4.18
22.4%
8.5%
13.9%
.343
.299
62.5%
38.5%
78
6.00
20253635194.3139003.473.9021.7%6.2%15.5%.313.28477.6%41.1%39010.83
20243131180.71112003.643.7624.2%6.5%17.7%.315.28577.8%40.9%36511.77
20233434202.0159003.343.6027.2%7.0%20.2%.302.27176.8%39.5%48814.35
20222827165.797002.883.0727.1%7.3%19.8%.289.27276.7%48.0%40714.54
20213434192.0817003.983.6523.9%9.3%14.6%.296.32271.6%57.8%2948.65
2020131375.347003.112.4530.4%8.2%22.2%.266.33571.3%58.4%16712.85
20193332191.7158003.383.5628.9%10.0%18.9%.278.26176.7%56.5%47614.42
20183232174.71013004.384.3023.3%6.9%16.4%.319.28471.0%47.9%2919.09
2017161695.037003.033.7127.2%8.9%18.3%.265.25181.8%59.7%20112.56
1
5.49
Results
xwOBA
23
.343
Barrel %
14
11.0
Hard-Hit %
5
47.3
K %
54
22.4
BB %
40
8.5
Chase %
58
31.5
Whiff %
54
22.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
111
≈ 86th pctl
Stuff+
100
if they swing
Command+
105
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
101
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.1%
45 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.030
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.012 better than avg · 145 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.020
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.009 better than avg · 36 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 444 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
39.9%95.12269+14.4+11.35.4623.5%52.4%24.5%31.4%18.5%0.362
SliderSL
28.5%85.1

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE19°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLSICHFC
Usage40%29%21%10%0%
MPH95.185.195.387.692.3
RHP Avg95.086.794.386.989.8
2236
+1.4
-1.3
5.46
30.0%
39.0%
26.7%
23.4%
10.3%
0.311
SinkerSI
21.5%95.32046+5.2+18.35.596.5%67.1%22.8%30.8%13.3%0.450
ChangeupCH
9.8%87.61908+0.8+18.45.5613.6%33.3%8.3%41.7%6.3%0.291
CutterFC
0.3%92.32070+11.2+6.85.40100.0%100.0%100.0%———

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 15″FC · 15″SI · 18″CH · 19″SL · 22″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 22″FC · 32″SI · 24″CH · 43″SL · 47″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.00′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLSICHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLSICHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLSICHFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.