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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Luis Gil

Luis Gil

SP·NYY
Compare
Compare
BF
85
K %
10.6%
BB %
12.9%
xwOBA
.384
PTS
10
PPG
2.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj21437.023004.604.6821.8%11.4%10.4%————522.49
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

85 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
72
94.9
FB Spin
88
2431
2026
4
4
19.3
1
2
0
0
6.05
8.38
10.6%
12.9%
-2.3%
.384
.161
77.7%
46.8%
10
2.50
2025121259.742003.474.8916.7%13.5%3.2%.346.25679.8%32.0%1028.50
20243232163.7157003.684.2526.8%12.1%14.7%.306.23478.1%35.0%37911.84
20224211.310017.152.1326.3%10.5%15.8%.297.41755.0%41.7%164.00
20217630.311002.974.0929.5%14.7%14.8%.304.23984.3%32.4%7310.43
Extension
82
6.78
Results
xwOBA
3
.384
Barrel %
28
9.7
Hard-Hit %
7
46.8
K %
0
10.6
BB %
3
12.9
Chase %
1
22.5
Whiff %
0
13.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
110
≈ 85th pctl
Stuff+
120
if they swing
Command+
109
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
115
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
4.2%
10 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.038
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.004 better than avg · 76 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.002
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.027 better than avg · 17 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 238 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
42.7%95.42438+16.9+4.16.723.4%45.2%19.2%15.0%4.8%0.514
ChangeupCH
25.1%90.51675

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSLSI
Usage43%25%19%13%
MPH95.490.587.095.1
RHP Avg95.086.986.794.3
+5.0
+15.5
6.87
31.3%
34.9%
30.2%
28.6%
14.3%
0.089
SliderSL
18.7%87.02601+7.8-6.16.7829.4%46.9%28.1%41.2%30.8%0.353
SinkerSI
13.5%95.12458+9.7+15.56.710.0%43.5%26.1%7.7%0.0%0.427

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 20″SI · 19″SL · 24″CH · 22″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 27″SI · 29″SL · 50″CH · 39″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.14′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSLSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSLSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSLSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.