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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #350 of 506

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Luis Medina
Luis Medina · #60
V⁻ —VORP -55V⁺ —
Luis Medina

Luis Medina

SP / RP·ATH
Compare
Compare
BF
119
K %
25.2%
BB %
10.1%
xwOBA
.343
PTS
62
PPG
2.95
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj35243.023144.454.2621.0%10.5%10.5%————732.09
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

119 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
90
96.9
FB Spin
83
2411
2026
21
1
27.7
1
1
0
3
3.25
3.75
25.2%
10.1%
15.1%
.343
.306
71.0%
42.7%
62
2.95
20248840.024005.184.3817.8%11.1%6.7%.339.31768.5%38.6%334.13
20232317109.7310005.424.6021.4%11.5%9.9%.338.30665.4%43.8%1024.43
Extension
21
6.13
Results
xwOBA
22
.343
Barrel %
34
9.3
Hard-Hit %
50
40.0
K %
74
25.2
BB %
19
10.1
Chase %
0
21.7
Whiff %
88
27.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
93
≈ 24th pctl
Stuff+
119
if they swing
Command+
82
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
119
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.2%
14 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.041
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.002 better than avg · 55 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.039
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.010 worse than avg · 23 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 194 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
34.5%98.02436+15.9+7.56.2332.0%60.8%35.3%25.0%31.3%0.453
SinkerSI
34.5%97.82413

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE41°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSICHSL
Usage34%34%16%16%
MPH98.097.889.788.0
RHP Avg95.094.386.986.7
+11.1
+15.1
6.27
4.8%
52.9%
15.7%
4.2%
0.0%
0.464
ChangeupCH
15.5%89.71415+2.7+9.86.3360.0%17.4%26.1%31.6%14.3%0.027
SliderSL
15.5%88.02446+3.9-7.56.2445.5%34.8%30.4%33.3%22.2%0.232

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SI · 21″SL · 24″CH · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 21″SI · 22″SL · 45″CH · 39″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.10′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSICHSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSICHSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSICHSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.