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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #114 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Luis Severino
Luis Severino · #60
V⁻ —VORP -29V⁺ —
Luis Severino

Luis Severino

SP·ATH
Compare
Compare
BF
271
K %
24.0%
BB %
11.4%
xwOBA
.318
PTS
83
PPG
6.92
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj161688.056004.424.2120.0%8.3%11.7%————1308.13
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
83
95.9
FB Spin
35
2221
Extension
2026
12
12
62.7
2
6
0
0
4.16
4.47
24.0%
11.4%
12.6%
.318
.317
74.9%
45.1%
83
6.92
20253030168.0911004.454.0117.6%7.1%10.5%.332.29666.3%41.9%2377.90
20243535203.7138003.804.1321.1%7.9%13.2%.309.28373.7%46.3%39311.23
2023201993.348006.565.8418.9%8.1%10.8%.367.33066.5%43.3%603.00
20222424120.784003.653.7227.6%7.4%20.2%.277.25675.5%45.2%28211.75
2021507.310011.231.8736.4%4.5%31.9%.216.18883.3%41.7%316.20
20195520.312001.773.4935.4%12.5%22.9%.259.28395.0%37.5%499.80
20183635204.3199013.522.9128.2%5.9%22.3%.300.31574.1%42.0%50914.14
20173736217.3177003.113.2629.4%6.5%22.9%.272.26475.9%50.5%57515.54
2016241380.349015.494.0821.2%8.0%13.2%.336.32263.6%45.4%843.50
64
6.61
Results
xwOBA
56
.318
Barrel %
42
8.7
Hard-Hit %
60
38.7
K %
66
24.0
BB %
10
11.4
Chase %
55
31.3
Whiff %
26
19.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
98
≈ 41th pctl
Stuff+
114
if they swing
Command+
87
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
112
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.3%
37 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.046
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.004 worse than avg · 134 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.028
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.001 better than avg · 37 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 448 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
CutterFC
27.1%94.32277+11.3-1.66.5420.0%38.0%24.0%30.6%7.1%0.410
SweeperST
23.8%84.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE40°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FCSTSIFFCHSL
Usage27%24%23%16%7%3%
MPH94.384.396.396.987.686.8
RHP Avg89.883.394.395.086.986.7
2560
+3.0
-18.2
6.58
26.7%
39.8%
26.1%
22.6%
20.0%
0.277
SinkerSI
23.3%96.32126+12.3+13.76.6518.2%59.3%27.9%25.7%23.1%0.460
4-Seam FastballFF
16.3%96.92219+16.9+6.26.4624.2%55.0%26.7%25.9%26.1%0.227
ChangeupCH
6.5%87.61534+8.3+14.36.7250.0%45.8%29.2%7.7%50.0%0.250
SliderSL
3.0%86.82515+3.9-9.36.5750.0%9.1%18.2%30.0%28.6%0.198

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″FC · 20″SI · 20″ST · 25″CH · 21″SL · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 21″FC · 27″SI · 22″ST · 50″CH · 46″SL · 45″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.36′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FCSTSIFFCHSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FCSTSIFFCHSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FCSTSIFFCHSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.