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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Luke Raley

Luke Raley

1B / OF·SEA
Compare
Compare
BF
19
K %
5.3%
BB %
0.0%
xwOBA
.600
PTS
-20
PPG
-10.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
2023202.7000030.3812.105.3%0.0%5.3%.600.56324.4%27.8%-20-10.00
2023 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

19 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
—
FB Spin
0
—
Extension
0
5.27
Results
xwOBA
0
.600
Barrel %
0
16.7
Hard-Hit %
0
61.1
K %
0
5.3
BB %
100
0.0
Chase %
93
33.3
Whiff %
0
4.5
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
-33
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
-41
if they swing
Command+
110
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
-59
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
70.7%
29 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.068
RV per pitch · league 0.048
+0.021 worse than avg · 5 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.091
RV per pitch · league 0.030
+0.061 worse than avg · 2 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 41 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
EephusEP
68.3%51.11162+11.0-1.85.197.1%46.4%17.9%26.7%25.0%0.697
OtherFA
31.7%57.41307

2023 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE54°100 PITCHSAMPLE
EPFA
Usage68%32%
MPH51.157.4
RHP Avg48.167.4
+11.5
-1.6
5.44
0.0%
53.8%
15.4%
50.0%
0.0%
0.391

2023 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTEP · 16″FA · 19″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′EP · 133″FA · 117″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (6.57′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2023 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
EPFA-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
EPFA-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
EPFA

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.