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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #54 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150MacKenzie Gore
MacKenzie Gore · #54
V⁻ —VORP 7V⁺ —
MacKenzie Gore

MacKenzie Gore

SP·TEX
Compare
Compare
BF
309
K %
24.6%
BB %
10.7%
xwOBA
.323
PTS
122
PPG
8.71
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj171788.065003.863.6726.1%9.4%16.7%————18010.60
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
69
94.6
FB Spin
25
2186
Extension
2026
14
14
71.0
4
5
0
0
4.18
3.54
24.6%
10.7%
13.9%
.323
.297
72.5%
37.4%
122
8.71
20253231163.7515014.233.6827.2%9.3%17.9%.323.32574.9%38.5%2568.00
20243333170.31112003.803.3924.7%8.9%15.8%.319.34368.8%39.5%3099.36
20232928146.0810014.134.5225.9%9.8%16.1%.348.30179.3%39.1%2629.03
2022191480.044014.614.0623.3%12.0%11.3%.352.31073.1%38.3%1326.95
88
6.86
Results
xwOBA
51
.323
Barrel %
44
8.6
Hard-Hit %
16
44.4
K %
69
24.6
BB %
13
10.7
Chase %
44
30.1
Whiff %
60
23.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
109
≈ 80th pctl
Stuff+
107
if they swing
Command+
108
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
101
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.1%
37 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.031
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.011 better than avg · 132 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.029
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.000 better than avg · 33 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 405 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
41.2%95.72247+16.9+6.36.8221.1%53.4%24.7%22.1%24.3%0.359
CurveballCU
24.0%81.6

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE48°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCUCHSLFCSI
Usage41%24%12%9%8%6%
MPH95.781.687.086.090.295.5
LHP Avg93.279.084.684.788.193.0
2266
-11.6
-4.3
6.79
37.1%
40.0%
34.1%
33.3%
32.5%
0.154
ChangeupCH
11.6%87.02064+10.6+14.66.9533.3%43.9%29.3%26.1%27.3%0.121
SliderSL
9.3%86.02092+4.2-3.76.8218.2%42.4%21.2%15.8%12.5%0.301
CutterFC
7.6%90.21930+7.7-1.76.7627.3%37.0%25.9%17.6%33.3%0.343
SinkerSI
6.2%95.52150+14.6+14.36.950.0%45.5%22.7%33.3%33.3%0.414

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″CH · 18″SI · 18″FC · 21″SL · 22″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 24″CH · 46″SI · 25″FC · 37″SL · 47″CU · 57″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.23′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCUCHSLFCSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCUCHSLFCSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCUCHSLFCSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.