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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Martín Pérez

Martín Pérez

SP·ATL
Compare
Compare
BF
225
K %
20.9%
BB %
8.9%
xwOBA
.316
PTS
124
PPG
9.54
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj19751.033004.414.2018.5%8.5%10.0%————733.86
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
88.4
FB Spin
8
2103
Extension
2026
13
9
56.7
4
3
0
0
3.02
3.98
20.9%
8.9%
12.0%
.316
.227
80.2%
45.5%
124
9.54
2025121160.026003.304.0219.2%9.6%9.6%.355.22275.1%38.8%1008.33
20242727138.056004.434.8218.1%8.3%9.8%.360.31677.4%44.1%1806.67
20233921151.3104024.524.8015.3%8.0%7.3%.337.29573.7%46.1%2225.69
20223433200.3129012.883.2820.6%8.4%12.2%.301.29177.0%51.9%41412.18
20214325131.0711015.024.9019.1%7.1%12.0%.357.33667.5%44.4%1343.12
2020121262.035004.504.7917.5%10.6%6.9%.334.26670.9%39.5%776.42
20193330171.0108005.164.5218.3%9.1%9.2%.307.31466.9%49.4%2086.30
2018231690.327026.285.7513.1%9.0%4.1%.363.34866.0%52.1%190.83
20173333190.01412004.694.5114.1%7.7%6.4%.357.32671.0%47.8%2156.52
15
6.07
Results
xwOBA
58
.316
Barrel %
61
7.7
Hard-Hit %
51
39.7
K %
43
20.9
BB %
35
8.9
Chase %
18
27.6
Whiff %
39
20.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
92
≈ 21th pctl
Stuff+
93
if they swing
Command+
93
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
91
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.3%
34 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.049
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.007 worse than avg · 88 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.010
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.019 better than avg · 19 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 302 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
32.5%90.21975+8.7+16.96.045.7%46.9%27.6%25.0%8.3%0.427
ChangeupCH
27.8%83.21620

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE46°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SICHFCCUFF
Usage32%28%23%11%6%
MPH90.283.286.777.190.7
LHP Avg93.084.688.179.093.2
+8.9
+14.7
6.11
21.6%
34.5%
15.5%
43.6%
7.7%
0.312
CutterFC
22.5%86.72225+10.2-0.46.0011.5%57.4%33.8%24.1%23.5%0.210
CurveballCU
10.9%77.12442-3.3-5.96.0041.7%48.5%39.4%29.4%0.0%0.331
4-Seam FastballFF
6.3%90.72090+15.2+9.66.0611.1%42.1%15.8%36.4%16.7%0.193

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 15″FC · 18″SI · 18″CH · 19″CU · 21″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 38″FC · 47″SI · 39″CH · 56″CU · 68″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.23′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SICHFCCUFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SICHFCCUFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SICHFCCUFF

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.