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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Matt Chapman

Matt Chapman

3B·SFG
Compare
Compare
PA
584
H
122
HR
17
AVG
.238
xwOBA
.337
PPG
1.69
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202667277.250.335.373.123.28521.3%9.7%11.6%401301.94—
2025131536.231
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
50
.337
xBA
4
.220
xSLG
.342
.429
.198
.343
23.5%
13.2%
10.3%
21
9
304
2.32
—
2024159648.247.328.462.215.34524.4%9.9%14.5%27153772.37—
2023147584.238.330.422.184.33728.3%10.6%17.7%1742481.69—
2022165622.228.326.432.204.34827.3%10.9%16.4%2723241.96—
2021158623.209.318.402.193.31932.4%12.8%19.6%2732631.66—
202038152.232.278.535.303.34935.5%5.3%30.2%100812.13—
2019157670.249.343.506.257.35921.9%10.9%11.0%3614362.78—
2018152617.277.356.507.230.34023.7%9.4%14.3%2413792.49—
201794326.234.315.472.238.32528.2%9.8%18.4%1401791.90—
59
.456
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
96
93.4
Median EV
97
96.9
90th % EV
84
107.8
Barrel %
98
17.1
Hard-Hit %
99
56.4
Sweet-Spot %
28
34.1
Bat Speed
Avg
89
74.1
Median
89
75.1
90th %
81
79.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
95
18.9
Whiff %
20
27.1
K %
6
28.3
BB %
73
10.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
106
≈ 72th pctl
Chase cost
-36.1r
323 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-22.8r
386 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.3%
2,533 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.32
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
25334323+30%10+44%9-26%19+15%27+25%12+20%10+8%12-23%31-20%44-19%63-22%54+47%36+22%18+35%23-30%50-31%68-22%83-18%45+54%26+6%17+5%21+25%40-3%36-17%24+0%27+14%74+8%13+19%16+13%16+0%1022CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000