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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Matt Chapman

Matt Chapman

3B·SFG
Compare
Compare
PA
536
H
105
HR
21
AVG
.231
xwOBA
.343
PPG
2.32
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202667277.250.335.373.123.28521.3%9.7%11.6%401301.94—
2025131536.231
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
62
.343
xBA
34
.243
xSLG
.342
.429
.198
.343
23.5%
13.2%
10.3%
21
9
304
2.32
—
2024159648.247.328.462.215.34524.4%9.9%14.5%27153772.37—
2023147584.238.330.422.184.33728.3%10.6%17.7%1742481.69—
2022165622.228.326.432.204.34827.3%10.9%16.4%2723241.96—
2021158623.209.318.402.193.31932.4%12.8%19.6%2732631.66—
202038152.232.278.535.303.34935.5%5.3%30.2%100812.13—
2019157670.249.343.506.257.35921.9%10.9%11.0%3614362.78—
2018152617.277.356.507.230.34023.7%9.4%14.3%2413792.49—
201794326.234.315.472.238.32528.2%9.8%18.4%1401791.90—
34
.419
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
88
92.2
Median EV
71
94.0
90th % EV
77
107.5
Barrel %
53
9.9
Hard-Hit %
73
47.6
Sweet-Spot %
24
34.3
Bat Speed
Avg
84
72.8
Median
87
74.4
90th %
87
79.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
94
20.1
Whiff %
47
22.6
K %
32
23.5
BB %
91
13.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
107
≈ 75th pctl
Chase cost
-31.4r
292 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-19.3r
345 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.6%
2,226 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.28
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
23+0%6+0%7431+10%10+23%13-7%14+5%19+35%23+0%12+0%7+33%12+7%29-26%62-30%63-18%51+33%36+7%14+40%25+15%46-32%76-32%74-45%47+43%28+0%7+26%19+20%35+18%40-3%34+10%30+17%123+0%17+15%13+14%14+17%633CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000