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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #15 of 41

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Matt Chapman
Matt Chapman · #15
V⁻ -34VORP -1V⁺ 38
Matt Chapman

Matt Chapman

3B·SFG
Compare
Compare
PA
277
H
61
HR
4
AVG
.250
xwOBA
.285
PPG
1.94
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj97418.236.329.408.172.33023.7%11.3%12.5%1352022.09—
202667277.250
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
6
.285
xBA
6
.213
xSLG
.335
.373
.123
.285
21.3%
9.7%
11.6%
4
0
130
1.94
—
2025131536.231.342.429.198.34323.5%13.2%10.3%2193042.32—
2024159648.247.328.462.215.34524.4%9.9%14.5%27153772.37—
2023147584.238.330.422.184.33728.3%10.6%17.7%1742481.69—
2022165622.228.326.432.204.34827.3%10.9%16.4%2723241.96—
2021158623.209.318.402.193.31932.4%12.8%19.6%2732631.66—
202038152.232.278.535.303.34935.5%5.3%30.2%100812.13—
2019157670.249.343.506.257.35921.9%10.9%11.0%3614362.78—
2018152617.277.356.507.230.34023.7%9.4%14.3%2413792.49—
201794326.234.315.472.238.32528.2%9.8%18.4%1401791.90—
4
.313
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
29
88.0
Median EV
36
91.6
90th % EV
83
108.0
Barrel %
18
5.3
Hard-Hit %
19
35.8
Sweet-Spot %
0
26.2
Bat Speed
Avg
86
73.8
Median
85
74.9
90th %
88
80.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
69
26.1
Whiff %
51
20.7
K %
43
21.3
BB %
56
9.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
99
≈ 45th pctl
Chase cost
-5.9r
55 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.7r
53 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.4%
331 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.58
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
111111+33%95+0%10-10%1021+44%9-20%10-37%16-22%27-9%22+38%8+13%8+33%9+5%21-52%21-32%19-42%12534+27%15+38%13+40%10+36%1121332522CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 331