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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Matt McLain

Matt McLain

2B / SS·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
404
H
106
HR
16
AVG
.290
xwOBA
.332
PPG
2.69
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202660243.208.306.373.165.32723.5%11.5%12.0%8101151.92—
2025150577.220
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

404 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
42
.332
xBA
40
.250
.302
.343
.123
.291
28.9%
9.5%
19.4%
15
18
215
1.43
—
202389404.290.356.505.215.33228.5%7.7%20.8%16142392.69—
xSLG
49
.439
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
38
88.9
Median EV
22
91.0
90th % EV
27
104.0
Barrel %
66
10.8
Hard-Hit %
53
42.4
Sweet-Spot %
95
40.8
Bat Speed
Avg
25
68.8
Median
23
69.9
90th %
22
74.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
68
25.4
Whiff %
29
25.3
K %
6
28.5
BB %
35
7.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
103
≈ 63th pctl
Chase cost
-22.7r
243 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-17.8r
342 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
41.8%
1,680 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.41
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
1+14%7+17%65521+10%10+0%16+15%34+29%31+41%29+13%8+0%7+28%18-15%34-29%63-39%69-12%43+40%204+32%25-30%53-43%72-35%72-32%31+21%243+33%21+6%49+3%37-8%39+0%18+0%125+20%10-14%7+20%15+0%11+0%7CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000