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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #9 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Matt Olson
Matt Olson · #9
V⁻ -7VORP 29V⁺ 62
Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B·ATL
Compare
Compare
PA
295
H
71
HR
19
AVG
.271
xwOBA
.381
PPG
3.15
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj101436.254.348.479.225.36523.4%12.2%11.3%2112592.56—
202667295.271
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
85
.381
xBA
59
.264
xSLG
.346
.561
.290
.381
22.7%
9.8%
12.9%
19
2
211
3.15
—
2025168724.272.369.484.212.36224.3%12.6%11.7%2914192.49—
2024170685.247.335.457.210.34524.8%10.4%14.4%2903582.11—
2023174722.282.390.602.320.40023.1%14.4%8.7%5416113.51—
2022177702.239.325.475.236.35224.2%10.7%13.5%3404392.48—
2021164673.271.378.540.269.38616.8%13.1%3.7%3945243.20—
202069245.195.310.424.229.34331.4%13.9%17.5%1411301.88—
2019128547.267.352.545.278.39325.2%9.3%15.9%3603532.76—
2018167660.247.336.453.206.36024.7%10.6%14.1%2923472.08—
201758216.259.352.651.392.39427.8%10.2%17.6%2401682.90—
94
.548
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
93
93.8
Median EV
74
94.7
90th % EV
83
108.0
Barrel %
85
14.6
Hard-Hit %
93
53.5
Sweet-Spot %
31
33.8
Bat Speed
Avg
76
72.8
Median
74
74.1
90th %
74
78.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
57
27.6
Whiff %
53
20.6
K %
33
22.7
BB %
56
9.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
93
≈ 23th pctl
Chase cost
-8.6r
74 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.6r
59 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.0%
433 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.84
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
153412+14%7+0%9+14%22+0%18-7%144+0%7+23%13+35%17-43%28-34%29-47%15+33%9+0%10+31%13+8%12-15%26-26%23-5%19+33%15+22%93+50%10+19%16+40%10+43%74115531CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 433