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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B·ATL
Compare
Compare
PA
685
H
148
HR
29
AVG
.247
xwOBA
.345
PPG
2.11
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202669304.270.346.563.293.37823.0%9.9%13.1%2022163.13—
2025168724.272
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
69
.345
xBA
42
.246
xSLG
.369
.484
.212
.362
24.3%
12.6%
11.7%
29
1
419
2.49
—
2024170685.247.335.457.210.34524.8%10.4%14.4%2903582.11—
2023174722.282.390.602.320.40023.1%14.4%8.7%5416113.51—
2022177702.239.325.475.236.35224.2%10.7%13.5%3404392.48—
2021164673.271.378.540.269.38616.8%13.1%3.7%3945243.20—
202069245.195.310.424.229.34331.4%13.9%17.5%1411301.88—
2019128547.267.352.545.278.39325.2%9.3%15.9%3603532.76—
2018167660.247.336.453.206.36024.7%10.6%14.1%2923472.08—
201758216.259.352.651.392.39427.8%10.2%17.6%2401682.90—
67
.463
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
80
91.5
Median EV
77
94.1
90th % EV
80
107.3
Barrel %
77
12.4
Hard-Hit %
74
47.4
Sweet-Spot %
55
36.1
Bat Speed
Avg
77
72.3
Median
77
73.6
90th %
78
78.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
43
28.7
Whiff %
40
23.5
K %
26
24.8
BB %
72
10.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
97
≈ 37th pctl
Chase cost
-60.0r
563 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-17.7r
308 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
49.8%
2,952 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.63
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
+14%7+11%9+0%10+7%14+0%12+0%63+15%13+26%27+12%33+0%49+14%28+11%19+0%6+27%22+21%56-32%53-15%59-21%57+13%31+8%13+25%16+18%45-20%54-6%47-20%41+50%28+33%9+44%9+50%16+33%24+50%26+60%25+63%84452+33%6421CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000