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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B·ATL
Compare
Compare
PA
724
H
170
HR
29
AVG
.272
xwOBA
.362
PPG
2.49
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202667290.267.341.539.272.37323.1%9.7%13.4%1722113.15—
2025168724.272
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
82
.362
xBA
46
.253
xSLG
.369
.484
.212
.362
24.3%
12.6%
11.7%
29
1
419
2.49
—
2024170685.247.335.457.210.34524.8%10.4%14.4%2903582.11—
2023174722.282.390.602.320.40023.1%14.4%8.7%5416113.51—
2022177702.239.325.475.236.35224.2%10.7%13.5%3404392.48—
2021164673.271.378.540.269.38616.8%13.1%3.7%3945243.20—
202069245.195.310.424.229.34331.4%13.9%17.5%1411301.88—
2019128547.267.352.545.278.39325.2%9.3%15.9%3603532.76—
2018167660.247.336.453.206.36024.7%10.6%14.1%2923472.08—
201758216.259.352.651.392.39427.8%10.2%17.6%2401682.90—
85
.497
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
92
93.3
Median EV
93
96.3
90th % EV
88
108.4
Barrel %
84
14.3
Hard-Hit %
92
53.2
Sweet-Spot %
77
38.6
Bat Speed
Avg
77
72.2
Median
75
73.6
90th %
83
79.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
65
24.9
Whiff %
35
24.1
K %
28
24.3
BB %
85
12.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
101
≈ 52th pctl
Chase cost
-55.3r
506 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-23.9r
424 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.3%
3,162 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.50
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2+18%11+0%9+0%6+0%9+0%105+10%10+5%21+10%31+2%46+3%36+14%22+0%10+33%18+11%45-27%62-28%68-31%61+32%41+10%10+27%11+23%43-21%47-20%56-31%54+38%26+14%7+11%9+36%14+42%26+27%26+41%17+38%13144+14%7+0%6541CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000