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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #212 of 506

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Matt Strahm
Matt Strahm · #60
V⁻ —VORP -40V⁺ —
Matt Strahm

Matt Strahm

RP·KCR
Compare
Compare
BF
82
K %
20.7%
BB %
8.5%
xwOBA
.273
PTS
62
PPG
3.10
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj31031.022033.933.7225.5%7.8%17.7%————682.19
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

82 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
10
90.5
FB Spin
97
2550
2026
20
0
19.3
3
1
0
9
4.19
5.94
20.7%
8.5%
12.2%
.273
.212
88.2%
31.6%
62
3.10
202569064.7236222.783.1027.3%7.8%19.5%.263.26176.7%23.8%2263.28
202472067.3623192.272.3733.3%4.6%28.7%.250.23578.4%31.9%2733.79
2023651298.0963123.213.1830.8%6.0%24.8%.278.27277.1%33.8%2954.54
202253047.7445133.593.5826.8%8.8%18.0%.286.29570.7%38.7%1542.91
2021616.701008.102.3511.1%2.8%8.3%.323.48462.5%51.6%-9-1.50
202024023.301053.474.7317.9%4.8%13.1%.328.26182.7%44.1%471.96
20194818122.7611064.404.1024.2%4.5%19.7%.328.31076.1%37.6%2144.46
201842562.334082.023.2627.9%8.5%19.4%.291.22386.1%36.8%1804.29
201728337.326056.515.1424.0%14.3%9.7%.315.31664.7%42.4%321.14
Extension
22
6.18
Results
xwOBA
90
.273
Barrel %
91
5.3
Hard-Hit %
61
38.6
K %
41
20.7
BB %
41
8.5
Chase %
19
27.7
Whiff %
41
21.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
111
≈ 86th pctl
Stuff+
103
if they swing
Command+
109
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
114
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.6%
15 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.036
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.006 better than avg · 46 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.021
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.008 better than avg · 16 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 156 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
36.7%90.72560+17.5+14.66.2215.0%59.1%31.8%27.8%33.3%0.155
SliderSL
30.0%80.42671

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE30°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLSICHFC
Usage37%30%18%11%4%
MPH90.780.490.981.586.7
LHP Avg93.284.793.084.688.1
+4.5
-6.1
6.14
22.2%
47.2%
25.0%
36.8%
12.5%
0.340
SinkerSI
18.3%90.92496+12.4+17.06.270.0%50.0%27.3%27.3%0.0%0.711
ChangeupCH
10.8%81.51585-2.2+15.16.2816.7%30.8%15.4%33.3%12.5%0.238
CutterFC
4.2%86.72680+11.1+8.26.1050.0%60.0%20.0%0.0%—0.440

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 14″SI · 18″FC · 17″SL · 20″CH · 20″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 36″SI · 36″FC · 44″SL · 61″CH · 57″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.08′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLSICHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLSICHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLSICHFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.