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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Matt Vierling

Matt Vierling

OF·DET
Compare
Compare
PA
530
H
125
HR
10
AVG
.261
xwOBA
.323
PPG
1.74
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202650186.211.280.355.144.30816.7%8.6%8.1%42851.70—
202531101.236
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
28
.323
xBA
57
.260
xSLG
.313
.303
.067
.338
23.8%
6.9%
16.9%
1
2
32
1.03
—
2024155570.255.313.420.165.31421.2%7.2%14.0%1663011.94—
2023137530.261.330.388.127.32321.1%8.3%12.8%1062391.74—
2022123357.246.302.351.105.32719.6%6.4%13.2%681711.39—
20214077.324.368.479.155.32726.0%5.2%20.8%22421.05—
17
.393
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
35
88.8
Median EV
47
92.1
90th % EV
50
105.2
Barrel %
9
4.6
Hard-Hit %
53
42.5
Sweet-Spot %
16
32.8
Bat Speed
Avg
38
69.8
Median
33
70.8
90th %
28
75.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
42
28.5
Whiff %
85
16.5
K %
47
21.1
BB %
39
8.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
92
≈ 21th pctl
Chase cost
-38.7r
330 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-22.6r
388 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.3%
2,162 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.84
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
2434332+57%7+28%18+15%20+12%25+43%30+16%194+39%18-3%39-49%47-21%56-23%44+39%33+17%6+32%22+23%62-35%80-47%70-41%49+12%25+0%6+35%20+35%34+5%41-3%32+5%22+8%13+0%6+0%6+20%10+0%9+50%6535CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000