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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #109 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Matt Vierling
Matt Vierling · #60
V⁻ -23VORP -1V⁺ 14
Matt Vierling

Matt Vierling

OF·DET
Compare
Compare
PA
186
H
35
HR
4
AVG
.211
xwOBA
.308
PPG
1.70
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj50218.243.310.382.139.31021.1%8.2%12.9%53991.97—
202650186.211
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

186 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
26
.308
xBA
33
.246
.280
.355
.144
.308
16.7%
8.6%
8.1%
4
2
85
1.70
—
202531101.236.313.303.067.33823.8%6.9%16.9%12321.03—
2024155570.255.313.420.165.31421.2%7.2%14.0%1663011.94—
2023137530.261.330.388.127.32321.1%8.3%12.8%1062391.74—
2022123357.246.302.351.105.32719.6%6.4%13.2%681711.39—
20214077.324.368.479.155.32726.0%5.2%20.8%22421.05—
xSLG
17
.373
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
19
86.9
Median EV
25
90.2
90th % EV
31
103.4
Barrel %
23
5.8
Hard-Hit %
16
33.3
Sweet-Spot %
45
35.5
Bat Speed
Avg
42
69.8
Median
31
70.3
90th %
26
74.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
47
29.5
Whiff %
87
14.5
K %
75
16.7
BB %
38
8.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
91
≈ 18th pctl
Chase cost
-3.7r
26 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.0r
26 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.7%
161 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.92
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
11114153154-50%8-22%9-37%81215-33%15-23%13-25%8+71%71+43%7+20%104+36%111124111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 161