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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #111 of 237

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Matt Vierling
Matt Vierling · #60
V⁻ -23VORP -2V⁺ 14
Matt Vierling

Matt Vierling

OF·DET
Compare
Compare
PA
286
H
53
HR
5
AVG
.202
xwOBA
.302
PPG
1.37
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj50218.243.310.382.139.31021.1%8.2%12.9%53991.97—
202682286.202
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

286 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
18
.302
xBA
49
.253
.256
.321
.119
.302
16.8%
6.6%
10.2%
5
4
112
1.37
—
202531101.236.313.303.067.33823.8%6.9%16.9%12321.03—
2024155570.255.313.420.165.31421.2%7.2%14.0%1663011.94—
2023137530.261.330.388.127.32321.1%8.3%12.8%1062391.74—
2022123357.246.302.351.105.32719.6%6.4%13.2%681711.39—
20214077.324.368.479.155.32726.0%5.2%20.8%22421.05—
xSLG
28
.376
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
22
87.4
Median EV
25
90.2
90th % EV
31
103.4
Barrel %
18
5.0
Hard-Hit %
25
36.7
Sweet-Spot %
45
35.8
Bat Speed
Avg
37
69.8
Median
31
70.3
90th %
26
74.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
32
32.5
Whiff %
85
16.1
K %
74
16.8
BB %
16
6.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
91
≈ 18th pctl
Chase cost
-3.7r
26 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.0r
26 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.7%
161 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.92
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
11114153154-50%8-22%9-37%81215-33%15-23%13-25%8+71%71+43%7+20%104+36%111124111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 161