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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Matt Waldron

Matt Waldron

SP·SDP
Compare
Compare
BF
110
K %
20.0%
BB %
6.4%
xwOBA
.305
PTS
3
PPG
0.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj8112.011004.514.5318.8%7.1%11.7%————182.22
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

110 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
9
90.6
FB Spin
6
2085
2026
6
3
23.3
1
2
0
0
8.49
5.16
20.0%
6.4%
13.6%
.305
.378
57.1%
46.8%
3
0.50
2025114.701007.718.4612.0%24.0%-12.0%.474.33375.5%50.0%-8-8.00
20242726146.7711004.914.1921.2%6.4%14.8%.317.29567.2%39.1%2087.70
20238641.313004.355.3017.9%6.9%11.0%.321.24880.7%40.0%546.75
Extension
67
6.64
Results
xwOBA
71
.305
Barrel %
61
7.6
Hard-Hit %
58
39.2
K %
40
20.0
BB %
79
6.4
Chase %
62
31.7
Whiff %
8
16.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
97
≈ 37th pctl
Stuff+
88
if they swing
Command+
96
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
93
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.1%
14 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.048
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.005 worse than avg · 36 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.001
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.028 better than avg · 10 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 139 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
KnuckleballKN
38.3%80.9371-3.0+3.16.585.3%51.6%12.9%33.3%25.0%0.277
SweeperST
24.7%81.82237

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROP100 PITCHSAMPLE
KNSTFFSIFC
Usage38%25%20%10%7%
MPH80.981.892.591.988.8
RHP Avg—83.395.094.389.8
+4.0
-13.2
6.84
25.0%
45.0%
40.0%
18.2%
20.0%
0.355
4-Seam FastballFF
19.8%92.52018+14.5+6.16.7927.3%37.5%18.8%50.0%11.1%0.392
SinkerSI
9.9%91.92161+8.6+15.86.860.0%50.0%25.0%0.0%—0.743
CutterFC
7.4%88.82200+7.4-4.46.800.0%33.3%0.0%50.0%0.0%0.274

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 15″FC · 18″SI · 18″ST · 19″KN · 20″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 32″FC · 40″SI · 33″ST · 59″KN · 62″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.51′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
KNSTFFSIFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
KNSTFFSIFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
KNSTFFSIFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.