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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #39 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Matthew Boyd
Matthew Boyd · #39
V⁻ —VORP 31V⁺ —
Matthew Boyd

Matthew Boyd

SP·CHC
Compare
Compare
BF
100
K %
31.0%
BB %
6.0%
xwOBA
.322
PTS
45
PPG
9.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj161690.065003.823.7922.6%7.1%15.5%————17510.94
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

100 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
30
92.4
FB Spin
62
2301
2026
5
5
24.0
2
1
0
0
6.00
2.35
31.0%
6.0%
25.0%
.322
.377
49.6%
39.7%
45
9.00
20253535195.01410003.233.6921.4%5.8%15.6%.302.27575.0%39.0%41311.80
2024111151.322002.283.0627.7%7.8%19.9%.276.27679.4%33.3%13011.82
2023151571.055005.454.2024.1%8.3%15.8%.316.30262.0%38.9%1067.07
202211013.720011.323.3924.5%15.1%9.4%.285.18287.5%45.2%474.27
2021171788.048003.783.9619.9%6.8%13.1%.313.30075.5%39.6%1378.06
2020121260.337006.715.6922.1%8.1%14.0%.348.30865.8%38.0%473.92
20193232185.3912004.564.2130.2%6.3%23.9%.299.30774.4%36.0%36311.34
20183333180.01013004.254.2622.4%7.2%15.2%.287.25971.6%30.5%3189.64
20172827144.0711004.944.2918.2%8.7%9.5%.335.32469.7%39.6%1605.71
Extension
32
6.33
Results
xwOBA
50
.322
Barrel %
31
9.5
Hard-Hit %
1
50.8
K %
97
31.0
BB %
86
6.0
Chase %
99
37.7
Whiff %
91
28.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
97
≈ 38th pctl
Stuff+
97
if they swing
Command+
98
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
94
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.9%
27 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.051
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.009 worse than avg · 80 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.017
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.012 better than avg · 19 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 248 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
61.5%92.72285+13.3+13.56.4436.8%46.5%29.3%39.6%25.7%0.351
ChangeupCH
23.6%79.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE25°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHCUSL
Usage61%24%9%6%
MPH92.779.373.084.3
LHP Avg93.284.679.084.7
1790
+3.6
+17.0
6.26
33.3%
34.2%
34.2%
48.0%
20.0%
0.425
CurveballCU
8.7%73.02243-6.9-7.76.0666.7%64.3%64.3%0.0%100.0%0.000
SliderSL
6.2%84.32597+2.5-1.76.3457.1%30.0%40.0%57.1%42.9%0.240

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″CU · 21″CH · 21″SL · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 34″CU · 78″CH · 64″SL · 53″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.37′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHCUSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHCUSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHCUSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.