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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #126 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Matthew Liberatore
Matthew Liberatore · #60
V⁻ —VORP -40V⁺ —
Matthew Liberatore

Matthew Liberatore

SP·STL
Compare
Compare
BF
292
K %
20.9%
BB %
8.9%
xwOBA
.353
PTS
94
PPG
7.23
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj181894.056004.364.1919.5%7.8%11.7%————1397.75
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
59
94.2
FB Spin
10
2119
Extension
2026
13
13
66.3
3
3
0
0
4.48
4.59
20.9%
8.9%
12.0%
.353
.330
76.8%
40.1%
94
7.23
20253030155.7912004.164.0018.8%6.2%12.6%.340.29770.4%39.0%2307.67
202462688.034084.304.0321.2%7.8%13.4%.324.28370.4%44.0%1582.55
2023221161.736025.254.1216.7%9.1%7.6%.371.31460.7%43.7%572.59
202211739.022025.775.2317.4%11.2%6.2%.364.34773.5%39.5%333.00
28
6.26
Results
xwOBA
16
.353
Barrel %
32
9.4
Hard-Hit %
19
44.1
K %
43
20.9
BB %
35
8.9
Chase %
27
28.3
Whiff %
41
21.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
109
≈ 83th pctl
Stuff+
107
if they swing
Command+
103
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
108
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.7%
39 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.038
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.004 better than avg · 114 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.018
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.012 better than avg · 25 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 404 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
35.3%94.42075+16.4+5.86.289.0%55.6%21.0%29.1%10.7%0.404
SliderSL
24.8%86.1

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE47°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLCHCUSIFCFS
Usage35%25%18%9%9%3%2%
MPH94.486.188.477.794.690.487.3
LHP Avg93.284.784.679.093.088.1—
2633
+0.1
-4.7
6.31
31.7%
37.9%
29.9%
38.9%
23.5%
0.352
ChangeupCH
17.7%88.41802+9.3+15.76.1620.7%45.2%19.4%23.5%12.5%0.291
CurveballCU
9.4%77.72906-18.3-10.36.2011.1%42.4%24.2%10.5%0.0%0.617
SinkerSI
8.5%94.62072+14.5+13.36.327.7%53.3%23.3%21.4%0.0%0.341
CutterFC
2.6%90.42364+12.4-0.76.180.0%55.6%11.1%0.0%0.0%—
Split-FingerFS
1.7%87.3938+6.5+7.46.270.0%0.0%0.0%16.7%0.0%0.482

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″FC · 19″SI · 21″CH · 23″FS · 23″SL · 25″CU · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 26″FC · 34″SI · 27″CH · 41″FS · 45″SL · 43″CU · 64″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.59′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLCHCUSIFCFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLCHCUSIFCFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLCHCUSIFCFS

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.