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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #82 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Mauricio Dubón
Mauricio Dubón · #60
V⁻ -32VORP 1V⁺ 10
Mauricio Dubón

Mauricio Dubón

2B / 3B / SS / OF·ATL
Compare
Compare
PA
246
H
59
HR
6
AVG
.260
xwOBA
.313
PPG
2.24
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj80347.253.296.358.105.29313.7%5.6%8.1%531612.01—
202663246.260
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
28
.313
xBA
55
.261
xSLG
.317
.414
.154
.313
16.3%
6.9%
9.4%
6
1
141
2.24
—
2025122398.241.289.355.114.27810.6%6.0%4.6%731981.62—
2024133428.269.300.361.092.27612.9%3.7%9.2%442111.59—
2023139492.278.311.411.133.30414.2%3.9%10.3%1072942.12—
202294265.214.257.313.099.27911.3%4.9%6.4%531441.53—
202172187.240.281.377.137.27821.9%4.8%17.1%53821.14—
202051177.274.341.389.115.32120.3%8.5%11.8%42831.63—
201931112.271.304.430.159.27817.9%4.5%13.4%43561.81—
28
.389
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
19
87.0
Median EV
17
89.4
90th % EV
18
102.0
Barrel %
23
5.9
Hard-Hit %
7
28.9
Sweet-Spot %
88
41.2
Bat Speed
Avg
15
67.4
Median
19
69.3
90th %
15
73.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
10
36.4
Whiff %
81
15.8
K %
75
16.3
BB %
18
6.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
104
≈ 64th pctl
Chase cost
-5.1r
55 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.8r
43 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.3%
290 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.38
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
222114-50%6+20%105+33%612+13%8-27%15-42%19+13%8544+18%17-33%33-21%19+15%13+44%925+29%14+13%15+29%73111+17%6+22%91211CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 290