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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #29 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Max Fried
Max Fried · #29
V⁻ —VORP 45V⁺ —
Max Fried

Max Fried

SP·NYY
Compare
Compare
BF
240
K %
20.8%
BB %
7.9%
xwOBA
.253
PTS
134
PPG
13.40
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj141482.073003.373.3722.1%7.3%14.9%————18213.02
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
41
93.2
FB Spin
23
2173
Extension
2026
10
10
61.7
4
3
0
0
3.21
2.71
20.8%
7.9%
12.9%
.253
.250
67.1%
49.1%
134
13.40
20253535210.0196003.093.1723.6%6.4%17.2%.287.28273.3%52.6%51214.63
20243231180.31111003.493.3723.2%8.0%15.2%.305.29271.8%59.2%36011.25
2023161684.791002.663.2525.6%5.8%19.8%.258.30781.7%59.2%23714.81
20223333195.7149002.762.8323.1%4.4%18.7%.268.28375.1%51.2%46314.03
20213535202.3189003.113.1723.7%6.1%17.6%.288.28676.0%53.8%49914.26
2020151579.771002.493.3822.3%8.5%13.8%.262.27984.5%53.6%20713.80
20193831171.7186024.093.5624.6%6.7%17.9%.301.33473.4%54.6%3799.97
201818536.014013.003.9631.0%14.1%16.9%.318.29583.3%52.6%683.78
20179426.011003.814.7518.2%9.9%8.3%.352.33874.2%65.1%364.00
49
6.49
Results
xwOBA
97
.253
Barrel %
99
1.8
Hard-Hit %
97
30.8
K %
41
20.8
BB %
51
7.9
Chase %
34
29.3
Whiff %
55
22.5
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
115
≈ 94th pctl
Stuff+
95
if they swing
Command+
110
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
106
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.3%
51 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.030
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.012 better than avg · 136 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.016
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.013 better than avg · 44 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 546 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
21.9%93.22081+5.1+11.46.606.4%56.9%25.5%31.8%5.6%0.255
CutterFC
21.2%91.92284

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE46°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SIFCFFCHCUSTSL
Usage22%21%20%14%14%9%0%
MPH93.291.994.685.773.980.086.6
LHP Avg93.088.193.284.679.081.084.7
+7.8
-1.5
6.49
22.9%
54.5%
30.3%
26.7%
33.3%
0.207
4-Seam FastballFF
19.7%94.62109+16.5+4.36.6326.3%55.4%33.7%19.5%30.0%0.244
ChangeupCH
13.9%85.71741+5.0+16.26.7527.0%38.5%27.7%52.5%16.0%0.266
CurveballCU
13.5%73.92811-16.6-10.66.4113.0%50.8%27.0%16.1%13.0%0.229
SweeperST
9.4%80.02728-0.0-17.46.318.3%31.8%13.6%13.3%0.0%0.296
SliderSL
0.2%86.62106+5.6-0.76.70—0.0%0.0%0.0%——

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″FC · 20″ST · 21″CH · 19″SI · 22″CU · 23″SL · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 27″FC · 32″ST · 63″CH · 49″SI · 29″CU · 79″SL · 49″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.52′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SIFCFFCHCUSTSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SIFCFFCHCUSTSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SIFCFFCHCUSTSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.