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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Max Kepler

Max Kepler

OF·FA
Compare
Compare
PA
491
H
114
HR
24
AVG
.260
xwOBA
.364
PPG
2.18
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
2025134475.215.302.390.175.33519.6%10.1%9.5%1852531.89—
2024107399.253
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

491 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
79
.364
xBA
71
.266
.304
.380
.127
.304
20.1%
5.5%
14.6%
8
1
169
1.58
—
2023136491.260.335.484.224.36421.6%9.2%12.4%2412972.18—
2022126448.226.320.346.120.34414.7%10.9%3.8%942411.91—
2021128490.211.309.413.202.34919.6%11.0%8.6%19102612.04—
202050196.228.323.439.211.34318.4%11.2%7.2%931212.42—
2019139597.251.337.518.267.34716.6%10.1%6.5%3624503.24—
2018161611.224.321.408.184.32615.7%11.6%4.1%2043392.11—
2017153568.243.314.425.182.30520.1%8.3%11.8%1963051.99—
2016110448.234.312.423.189.30020.8%9.4%11.4%1762402.18—
xSLG
83
.507
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
85
91.9
Median EV
77
94.3
90th % EV
69
106.4
Barrel %
78
12.2
Hard-Hit %
75
47.9
Sweet-Spot %
67
37.5
Bat Speed
Avg
59
70.8
Median
56
71.9
90th %
50
76.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
72
24.8
Whiff %
69
18.8
K %
45
21.6
BB %
51
9.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
107
≈ 76th pctl
Chase cost
-32.3r
324 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-14.2r
243 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.6%
2,043 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.27
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
5+0%7+0%9+0%10241+23%13+17%29+15%34+19%32+25%24+0%145+49%37+5%44-29%59-14%76-12%43+53%30+15%13+77%13+13%45-33%58-20%56-22%41+36%28+25%12+25%16+39%23+14%36-10%20+21%14+31%133435+25%854CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000