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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #136 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer · #60
V⁻ —VORP -46V⁺ —
Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer

SP·TOR
Compare
Compare
BF
84
K %
11.9%
BB %
9.5%
xwOBA
.396
PTS
-14
PPG
-2.80
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj191265.034004.674.4921.5%7.1%14.4%————995.24
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

84 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
32
92.6
FB Spin
73
2351
2026
5
5
18.7
1
3
0
0
9.64
8.35
11.9%
9.5%
2.4%
.396
.259
51.9%
27.7%
-14
-2.80
20252121103.375004.794.9222.8%6.4%16.4%.332.28176.3%27.5%1768.38
20249943.324003.954.1222.5%5.6%16.9%.307.27775.2%34.1%728.00
20233131168.3147003.904.1528.0%7.2%20.8%.285.27279.5%33.7%39412.71
20222625161.0117102.632.9030.6%4.2%26.4%.268.26982.1%33.1%45717.58
20213635202.0156102.542.9934.0%5.2%28.8%.262.24584.6%35.0%63617.67
2020131372.355004.353.6731.1%7.8%23.3%.323.35676.6%34.6%14911.46
20193433209.3147012.882.5335.1%4.8%30.3%.255.31780.9%41.3%60017.65
20183535229.7188002.632.6334.6%5.9%28.7%.251.26981.0%35.2%71620.46
20173736223.7178002.542.7934.4%6.9%27.5%.245.25278.9%38.3%68518.51
Extension
22
6.17
Results
xwOBA
1
.396
Barrel %
3
13.8
Hard-Hit %
61
38.5
K %
1
11.9
BB %
28
9.5
Chase %
43
30.2
Whiff %
0
12.7
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
100
≈ 50th pctl
Stuff+
84
if they swing
Command+
115
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
76
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
19.2%
50 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.005 better than avg · 91 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.035
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.006 worse than avg · 19 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 260 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
46.5%93.02355+17.1+9.66.0412.8%62.1%28.7%33.3%20.0%0.398
SliderSL
20.9%86.2

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLCUCHFC
Usage47%21%14%13%6%
MPH93.086.276.384.788.3
RHP Avg95.086.780.286.989.8
2407
+5.3
-3.2
6.02
23.8%
35.9%
20.5%
32.0%
15.0%
0.417
CurveballCU
13.9%76.32715-5.2-11.76.2225.0%38.5%11.5%12.5%14.3%0.725
ChangeupCH
12.8%84.71276+5.0+14.06.419.1%37.5%12.5%26.7%0.0%0.247
CutterFC
5.9%88.32459+9.3-0.36.0325.0%45.5%27.3%16.7%33.3%0.623

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 21″FC · 24″CH · 22″SL · 25″CU · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 32″FC · 41″CH · 52″SL · 47″CU · 72″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.16′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLCUCHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLCUCHFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLCUCHFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.