Merrill Kelly

SP · ARI

MLBAM 518876

Seasons

Yr	BF	K%	BB%	xwOBA	Pts	PPG
2026	24	12.5%	16.7%	0.449	-3	-1.50
2025	748	22.3%	6.4%	0.316	395	11.97
2024	301	20.9%	6.3%	0.347	144	10.29
2023	721	25.9%	9.4%	0.314	485	13.86
2022	806	22.0%	7.6%	0.301	463	13.23
2021	668	19.5%	6.1%	0.327	241	8.31
2020	125	23.2%	4.0%	0.307	79	15.80
2019	777	20.3%	7.3%	0.348	280	8.24

2026 MLB Percentile Rankings

Season

24 BF this season — below qualified-pitcher cutoff. Bars ranked against qualified peers (faded to flag small sample).

Arsenal

FB Velocity

91.3

FB Spin

2346

Extension

5.95

Results

xwOBA

0.449

Barrel %

17.6

Hard-Hit %

41.2

K %

12.5

BB %

16.7

Chase %

27.3

Whiff %

27.8

Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+

≈ 1th pctl

Stuff+

121

if they swing

Command+

out-of-zone take RV

Strike quality+

124

RV of in-zone pitches

Crushable pitches

5.1%

7 meatballs

Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)

0.108

RV per pitch · league 0.042

+0.065 worse than avg · 25 pitches

Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.

Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)

0.020

RV per pitch · league 0.029

-0.010 better than avg · 16 pitches

How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.

Based on 137 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Spin	Whiff%	Zone%	CSW%	Chase%	xwOBA
ChangeupCH	24.4%	88.3	2182	50.0%	4.8%	19.0%	35.0%	0.192
CutterFC	24.4%	90.6	2376	20.0%	52.4%	23.8%	30.0%	0.385
4-Seam FastballFF	24.4%	91.4	2358	20.0%	66.7%	33.3%	0.0%	0.648
CurveballCU	17.4%	81.8	2571	33.3%	20.0%	20.0%	33.3%	0.737
SinkerSI	8.1%	92.8	2222	0.0%	28.6%	14.3%	20.0%	0.355
Pitch OutPO	1.2%	90.8	2327	—	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.

	CH	FC	FF	CU	SI	PO

Usage	24%	24%	24%	17%	8%	1%
MPH	88.3	90.6	91.4	81.8	92.8	90.8
RHP Avg	86.9	89.8	95.0	80.2	94.3	—

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision

23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival

At the Plate

Where they actually cross

CHFCFFCUSIPO

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.

2026 Divergence from a Shared Origin

Every pitch type launched from the same decision-point — how far apart they end up by the plate. Bigger fan = harder arsenal to square up.

Distances from origin (in inches) show how far each pitch type separates itself from the common launch point by plate arrival. RHP.