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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #140 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly · #60
V⁻ —VORP -48V⁺ —
Merrill Kelly

Merrill Kelly

SP·ARI
Compare
Compare
BF
260
K %
14.2%
BB %
9.6%
xwOBA
.418
PTS
61
PPG
6.10
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1818102.076004.394.1619.4%7.6%11.8%————1618.95
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
23
91.7
FB Spin
68
2332
Extension
2026
10
10
58.3
5
4
0
0
5.71
6.12
14.2%
9.6%
4.6%
.418
.269
73.4%
36.6%
61
6.10
20253333189.0129003.573.8822.3%6.4%15.9%.316.25974.0%43.7%39511.97
2024141477.352004.544.5720.9%6.3%14.6%.347.27071.2%42.8%14410.29
20233535206.3159003.183.6925.9%9.4%16.5%.314.26878.2%45.7%48513.86
20223535207.3148003.263.5022.0%7.6%14.4%.301.26675.9%43.8%46313.23
20212929167.7712004.293.9319.5%6.1%13.4%.327.30371.4%44.7%2418.31
20205531.332002.593.9023.2%4.0%19.2%.307.24792.0%45.6%7915.80
20193434194.01316004.504.3320.3%7.3%13.0%.348.29371.8%43.2%2808.24
15
6.07
Results
xwOBA
0
.418
Barrel %
0
16.5
Hard-Hit %
15
44.8
K %
3
14.2
BB %
25
9.6
Chase %
74
32.5
Whiff %
50
22.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
71
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
121
if they swing
Command+
57
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
124
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.1%
7 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.108
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.065 worse than avg · 25 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.020
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.010 better than avg · 16 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 137 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
ChangeupCH
24.4%88.32182+0.1+16.36.0250.0%4.8%19.0%35.0%42.9%0.192
CutterFC
24.4%90.62376

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE23°100 PITCHSAMPLE
CHFCFFCUSIPO
Usage24%24%24%17%8%1%
MPH88.390.691.481.892.890.8
RHP Avg86.989.895.080.294.3—
+12.4
+3.9
5.91
20.0%
52.4%
23.8%
30.0%
0.0%
0.385
4-Seam FastballFF
24.4%91.42358+15.3+9.65.9620.0%66.7%33.3%0.0%0.0%0.648
CurveballCU
17.4%81.82571-9.2-7.25.8633.3%20.0%20.0%33.3%0.0%0.737
SinkerSI
8.1%92.82222+6.7+16.65.970.0%28.6%14.3%20.0%0.0%0.355
Pitch OutPO
1.2%90.82327+16.1+8.56.00—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTPO · 13″FF · 16″FC · 18″SI · 19″CH · 22″CU · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′PO · 37″FF · 33″FC · 34″SI · 32″CH · 41″CU · 56″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (3.94′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
CHFCFFCUSIPO-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
CHFCFFCUSIPO-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
CHFCFFCUSIPO

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.