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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Michael Busch

Michael Busch

1B·CHC
Compare
Compare
PA
568
H
123
HR
21
AVG
.247
xwOBA
.326
PPG
1.77
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202669305.251.377.410.159.35323.0%14.8%8.2%811562.26—
2025165586.264
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
36
.326
xBA
4
.217
xSLG
.346
.528
.264
.383
23.2%
9.4%
13.8%
34
4
403
2.44
—
2024154568.247.337.439.192.32628.5%11.1%17.4%2122721.77—
20232881.167.250.292.125.26833.3%9.9%23.4%21260.93—
50
.431
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
54
89.7
Median EV
56
92.8
90th % EV
56
105.3
Barrel %
66
11.2
Hard-Hit %
32
39.9
Sweet-Spot %
70
37.3
Bat Speed
Avg
20
68.2
Median
23
70.0
90th %
23
75.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
81
23.2
Whiff %
31
25.6
K %
8
28.5
BB %
82
11.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
108
≈ 78th pctl
Chase cost
-36.1r
365 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-18.0r
294 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.0%
2,371 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.28
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
+0%9+0%10+14%75+0%8+0%72+33%15+0%24+16%32-2%41+7%30+0%133+28%36+12%52-24%76-26%77-13%53+13%39+0%11+53%30+12%52-19%47-24%51-2%41+30%335+50%6+30%20+6%16+22%32+33%12+0%73245431CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000