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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #72 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Michael King
Michael King · #60
V⁻ —VORP -3V⁺ —
Michael King

Michael King

SP·SDP
Compare
Compare
BF
298
K %
23.2%
BB %
9.7%
xwOBA
.324
PTS
147
PPG
11.31
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919101.075003.813.8424.2%9.0%15.1%————20310.70
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
45
93.3
FB Spin
58
2286
Extension
2026
13
13
74.0
4
5
0
0
3.41
4.02
23.2%
9.7%
13.5%
.324
.249
76.8%
48.4%
147
11.31
2025171679.363003.184.1124.7%8.4%16.3%.320.25681.6%39.1%19511.47
20243433190.3159003.073.3427.6%8.7%18.9%.297.28675.3%41.5%47113.85
2023519108.348692.742.9129.5%7.4%22.1%.292.31081.0%43.4%2935.75
202238158.7631162.763.0133.2%8.0%25.2%.274.29279.5%48.7%1985.21
202125870.724034.203.8822.5%8.7%13.8%.336.29269.8%45.9%1234.92
202011532.722006.614.5421.5%9.1%12.4%.334.29857.5%40.2%353.18
2019102.000000.002.1011.1%0.0%11.1%.114.25050.0%37.5%55.00
9
5.92
Results
xwOBA
48
.324
Barrel %
20
10.4
Hard-Hit %
82
35.4
K %
59
23.2
BB %
23
9.7
Chase %
19
27.7
Whiff %
69
24.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
94
≈ 26th pctl
Stuff+
97
if they swing
Command+
85
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
97
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
12.0%
52 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.057
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.015 worse than avg · 112 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.044
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.014 worse than avg · 30 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 432 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
35.0%92.62246+4.4+18.05.975.7%61.7%29.2%26.1%13.0%0.515
ChangeupCH
27.1%86.2

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE24°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SICHSTFFSL
Usage35%27%18%17%3%
MPH92.686.281.893.783.8
RHP Avg94.386.983.395.086.7
1920
+4.6
+18.3
6.16
24.5%
46.2%
19.4%
32.0%
21.1%
0.305
SweeperST
17.8%81.82851+1.7-14.65.9433.3%36.1%27.9%28.2%18.8%0.224
4-Seam FastballFF
16.6%93.72298+16.6+8.15.9550.0%40.4%33.3%29.4%37.5%0.203
SliderSL
3.5%83.82514-1.6-4.96.0320.0%33.3%16.7%25.0%11.1%0.260

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SI · 20″ST · 24″CH · 21″SL · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 28″SI · 32″ST · 57″CH · 47″SL · 50″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.16′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SICHSTFFSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SICHSTFFSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SICHSTFFSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.