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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #159 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen · #60
V⁻ —VORP -66V⁺ —
Michael Lorenzen

Michael Lorenzen

SP·COL
Compare
Compare
BF
301
K %
15.9%
BB %
7.3%
xwOBA
.379
PTS
-29
PPG
-2.07
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj251695.048005.254.7917.1%8.2%9.0%————863.44
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
38
92.9
FB Spin
77
2367
Extension
2026
14
13
60.7
2
8
0
0
8.01
5.11
15.9%
7.3%
8.6%
.379
.406
58.9%
45.2%
-29
-2.07
20252827146.7711014.664.6120.9%6.4%14.5%.332.30174.1%39.2%2027.21
20242824132.777003.324.7718.1%11.0%7.1%.333.23982.2%41.6%2358.39
20233225156.399114.094.3217.8%7.5%10.3%.326.26770.9%41.9%2718.47
20222020105.387004.364.1820.7%10.7%10.0%.309.26568.8%51.1%1758.75
202127029.0124115.594.1016.8%11.2%5.6%.310.27660.2%44.9%692.56
202020236.331023.963.4923.5%11.4%12.1%.281.30572.6%51.1%834.15
201976086.0147223.243.5124.7%8.1%16.6%.273.28978.2%46.5%2423.18
201845381.042183.114.1015.7%9.9%5.8%.322.29177.9%51.8%1603.56
201773087.3842184.233.9122.2%9.4%12.8%.307.29071.7%56.8%2142.93
7
5.85
Results
xwOBA
4
.379
Barrel %
30
9.6
Hard-Hit %
7
46.5
K %
12
15.9
BB %
62
7.3
Chase %
7
25.4
Whiff %
23
19.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
97
≈ 38th pctl
Stuff+
100
if they swing
Command+
98
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
91
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
13.2%
56 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.041
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.002 better than avg · 120 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.033
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.004 worse than avg · 33 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 425 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
ChangeupCH
20.7%83.82023+8.0+14.95.7940.6%31.5%24.7%26.0%14.3%0.295
4-Seam FastballFF
19.6%93.5

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE41°100 PITCHSAMPLE
CHFFSICUFCSLST
Usage21%20%14%14%13%12%7%
MPH83.893.593.081.989.584.781.8
RHP Avg86.995.094.380.289.886.783.3
2353
+14.2
+10.7
5.77
3.2%
46.4%
21.7%
29.7%
7.1%
0.543
SinkerSI
14.5%93.02195+8.6+15.55.798.0%60.8%27.5%25.0%0.0%0.342
CurveballCU
14.2%81.92499-10.6-1.35.8321.1%38.0%28.0%29.0%7.1%0.328
CutterFC
12.5%89.52488+6.5-0.65.7917.2%70.5%29.5%38.5%14.3%0.373
SliderSL
11.9%84.72476+0.4-1.75.7621.1%47.6%33.3%36.4%15.4%0.531
SweeperST
6.5%81.82522-0.0-11.45.8166.7%39.1%43.5%28.6%75.0%0.000

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″SI · 19″FC · 21″ST · 23″CH · 21″SL · 23″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 26″SI · 28″FC · 34″ST · 55″CH · 48″SL · 46″CU · 53″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.25′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
CHFFSICUFCSLST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
CHFFSICUFCSLST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
CHFFSICUFCSLST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.