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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #132 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Michael McGreevy
Michael McGreevy · #60
V⁻ —VORP -43V⁺ —
Michael McGreevy

Michael McGreevy

SP·STL
Compare
Compare
BF
285
K %
17.2%
BB %
6.0%
xwOBA
.359
PTS
130
PPG
10.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2318102.066004.254.0416.0%5.7%10.3%————1476.38
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
8
90.0
FB Spin
41
2235
Extension
2026
13
13
72.3
3
5
0
0
2.99
4.25
17.2%
6.0%
11.2%
.359
.244
84.4%
45.7%
130
10.00
20251817100.784004.204.1314.5%5.0%9.5%.333.27769.3%48.0%1699.39
20244323.030001.962.4920.9%2.3%18.6%.296.23479.5%64.6%7418.50
70
6.66
Results
xwOBA
13
.359
Barrel %
24
10.0
Hard-Hit %
48
40.6
K %
21
17.2
BB %
86
6.0
Chase %
26
28.2
Whiff %
12
18.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
109
≈ 82th pctl
Stuff+
103
if they swing
Command+
110
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
105
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.0%
33 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.005 better than avg · 112 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.008
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.022 better than avg · 32 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 411 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
25.8%91.12242+12.8+7.26.689.1%63.3%26.7%18.2%11.1%0.498
ChangeupCH
22.1%86.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSIFCCUSTSL
Usage26%22%15%12%11%7%7%
MPH91.186.089.486.077.380.483.2
RHP Avg95.086.994.389.880.283.386.7
1756
+1.8
+11.4
6.67
17.6%
27.3%
18.2%
37.5%
20.0%
0.271
SinkerSI
15.5%89.42120+5.4+10.66.6811.5%51.9%20.4%19.2%17.6%0.252
CutterFC
12.3%86.02331+5.1-2.56.675.0%58.1%25.6%27.8%25.0%0.343
CurveballCU
10.6%77.32484-12.8-14.46.6330.0%35.1%35.1%25.0%0.0%0.075
SweeperST
7.2%80.42441-2.4-14.76.5814.3%40.0%20.0%6.7%0.0%0.893
SliderSL
6.6%83.22408-2.9-4.66.680.0%39.1%8.7%21.4%5.9%0.816

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFC · 19″FF · 17″SI · 21″ST · 26″CH · 23″SL · 26″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FC · 45″FF · 33″SI · 36″ST · 59″CH · 46″SL · 53″CU · 69″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.31′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSIFCCUSTSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSIFCCUSTSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSIFCCUSTSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.