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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #36 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Michael Soroka
Michael Soroka · #36
V⁻ —VORP 37V⁺ —
Michael Soroka

Michael Soroka

SP·ARI
Compare
Compare
BF
307
K %
23.5%
BB %
5.5%
xwOBA
.313
PTS
180
PPG
13.85
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj231692.075004.093.7622.8%8.2%14.6%————1747.56
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
32
92.6
FB Spin
94
2503
Extension
2026
13
13
74.0
8
3
0
0
3.28
3.06
23.5%
5.5%
18.0%
.313
.300
76.9%
39.0%
180
13.85
2025251896.039015.064.2324.9%7.6%17.3%.293.27864.2%44.2%1345.36
2024261083.7010024.524.7124.1%12.6%11.5%.334.25667.1%41.7%983.77
20238733.722006.426.3120.0%8.3%11.7%.361.30671.4%46.0%313.88
20203313.701003.953.6914.0%12.3%1.7%.340.26863.2%61.0%144.67
20193130182.7134002.613.2520.3%5.8%14.5%.307.27379.6%52.9%44014.19
20186626.721003.712.6518.6%6.2%12.4%.331.35663.8%44.7%477.83
15
6.07
Results
xwOBA
60
.313
Barrel %
54
8.0
Hard-Hit %
88
33.3
K %
61
23.5
BB %
90
5.5
Chase %
88
34.3
Whiff %
19
18.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
103
≈ 61th pctl
Stuff+
96
if they swing
Command+
101
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
93
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
12.6%
65 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.041
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.001 better than avg · 156 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.006
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.024 better than avg · 31 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 514 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
34.3%94.02492+14.5+8.86.1511.3%54.0%25.4%19.0%26.3%0.428
SlurveSV
33.0%81.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE28°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSVCHSIFC
Usage34%33%12%10%10%
MPH94.081.086.093.889.2
RHP Avg95.0—86.994.389.8
2859
-7.7
-10.1
5.96
30.5%
48.8%
37.2%
38.7%
23.6%
0.285
ChangeupCH
12.3%86.02156+3.9+16.96.1233.3%46.7%31.1%41.7%33.3%0.418
SinkerSI
10.4%93.82344+6.4+17.16.165.6%52.6%23.7%27.8%20.0%0.181
CutterFC
10.1%89.22637+8.2-2.26.0422.7%40.5%18.9%40.9%33.3%0.367

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″FC · 21″SI · 20″CH · 21″SV · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 29″FC · 39″SI · 30″CH · 48″SV · 61″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.32′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSVCHSIFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSVCHSIFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSVCHSIFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.