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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

-500+50+100
Michael Toglia

Michael Toglia

1B·CIN
Compare
Compare
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj1240.160.225.302.142.23827.6%7.5%20.1%10110.88—
202591338.189.259.352.163.27439.1%8.3%30.8%113770.85—
2024121458.218.313.456
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

No MLB Statcast hitting rows for 2026.

.238
.364
32.1%
11.8%
20.3%
25
10
226
1.87
—
202349152.163.224.284.121.25832.9%6.6%26.3%41531.08—
202240120.216.275.378.162.26336.7%7.5%29.2%21360.90—
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
140
≈ 99th pctl
Chase cost
+0.0r
0 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.1r
1 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.0%
8 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-0.85
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1121111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 8