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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Michael Toglia

Michael Toglia

1B·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
458
H
87
HR
25
AVG
.218
xwOBA
.364
PPG
1.87
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202591338.189.259.352.163.27439.1%8.3%30.8%113770.85—
2024121458.218
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

458 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
84
.364
xBA
30
.240
.313
.456
.238
.364
32.1%
11.8%
20.3%
25
10
226
1.87
—
202349152.163.224.284.121.25832.9%6.6%26.3%41531.08—
202240120.216.275.378.162.26336.7%7.5%29.2%21360.90—
xSLG
88
.510
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
85
92.1
Median EV
91
95.1
90th % EV
73
106.8
Barrel %
98
17.3
Hard-Hit %
90
50.2
Sweet-Spot %
92
40.8
Bat Speed
Avg
69
71.6
Median
65
72.7
90th %
60
77.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
51
27.2
Whiff %
1
33.3
K %
1
32.1
BB %
91
11.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
96
≈ 33th pctl
Chase cost
-33.3r
313 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-18.9r
284 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.0%
1,958 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.67
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
44+13%85+14%741+17%23+14%21+0%31+9%33-4%26+38%16+0%6+23%30+15%48-40%67-20%54-30%44+28%18+26%19+17%29+17%42-40%62-40%48-8%39+35%17+13%8+52%21+38%24+0%30+23%31+18%22+25%12+17%614+8%132222CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000