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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #93 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Michael Wacha
Michael Wacha · #60
V⁻ —VORP -18V⁺ —
Michael Wacha

Michael Wacha

SP·KCR
Compare
Compare
BF
356
K %
19.4%
BB %
7.6%
xwOBA
.322
PTS
156
PPG
11.14
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919106.067004.464.1818.8%7.2%11.6%————1558.14
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
24
91.9
FB Spin
15
2144
Extension
2026
14
14
88.0
4
5
0
0
3.58
4.03
19.4%
7.6%
11.8%
.322
.263
74.7%
38.5%
156
11.14
20253232177.31013003.913.7517.6%6.3%11.3%.318.28773.5%37.8%2808.75
20243131175.3139003.443.6521.2%6.6%14.6%.316.29176.8%39.9%34911.26
20232525139.3144003.363.7422.3%7.7%14.6%.319.27278.4%35.2%32312.92
20222727142.3132003.674.2920.2%6.0%14.2%.333.26978.9%41.2%32311.96
20213325139.345024.974.2022.9%5.9%17.0%.353.31869.6%42.5%2176.58
20208734.014006.625.1623.7%4.5%19.2%.326.36668.4%39.1%212.63
20193025130.777004.615.3518.5%9.6%8.9%.359.30978.6%49.5%1675.57
2018161688.382003.064.0119.9%10.1%9.8%.349.25276.0%46.7%20412.75
20173232174.7149004.023.6022.5%7.8%14.7%.307.32372.4%50.1%32910.28
76
6.72
Results
xwOBA
53
.322
Barrel %
83
6.2
Hard-Hit %
62
38.5
K %
34
19.4
BB %
57
7.6
Chase %
37
29.4
Whiff %
27
19.7
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
109
≈ 81th pctl
Stuff+
96
if they swing
Command+
104
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
105
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.9%
36 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.005 better than avg · 135 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.027
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.002 better than avg · 32 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 455 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
30.0%93.02176+18.7+6.16.6920.0%55.5%27.3%30.6%21.9%0.321
ChangeupCH
24.5%80.1

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE52°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHFCSICUSL
Usage30%25%17%14%7%7%
MPH93.080.188.993.275.485.1
RHP Avg95.086.989.894.380.286.7
1495
+10.2
+13.2
6.64
30.0%
46.7%
30.0%
27.1%
18.8%
0.219
CutterFC
17.2%88.92166+11.1-1.16.7117.6%58.7%27.0%30.8%27.8%0.329
SinkerSI
14.2%93.22058+16.1+13.56.7122.2%40.4%25.0%41.9%14.3%0.431
CurveballCU
7.4%75.42385-12.5-13.76.5757.1%33.3%48.1%33.3%50.0%0.000
SliderSL
6.8%85.12005+4.6-3.16.7033.3%32.0%28.0%41.2%11.1%0.050

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 21″SI · 21″FC · 24″CH · 24″SL · 26″CU · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 30″SI · 30″FC · 38″CH · 60″SL · 48″CU · 72″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.60′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHFCSICUSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHFCSICUSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHFCSICUSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.