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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #83 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Mick Abel
Mick Abel · #60
V⁻ —VORP -14V⁺ —
Mick Abel

Mick Abel

SP·MIN
Compare
Compare
BF
93
K %
24.7%
BB %
10.8%
xwOBA
.353
PTS
29
PPG
7.25
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj171059.044004.394.1921.3%10.4%10.8%————925.39
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

93 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
70
94.7
FB Spin
95
2507
2026
4
3
20.3
1
2
0
0
3.98
2.76
24.7%
10.8%
13.9%
.353
.386
74.3%
40.4%
29
7.25
202510839.034006.235.0722.4%9.2%13.2%.346.31865.6%37.3%383.80
Extension
92
6.94
Results
xwOBA
16
.353
Barrel %
91
5.3
Hard-Hit %
47
40.4
K %
72
24.7
BB %
13
10.8
Chase %
81
33.1
Whiff %
74
24.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
112
≈ 89th pctl
Stuff+
105
if they swing
Command+
113
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
103
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.9%
48 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.036
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.006 better than avg · 163 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.040
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.011 worse than avg · 20 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 485 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
42.9%94.82516+16.9+7.56.9426.3%58.2%34.0%34.4%15.9%0.480
ChangeupCH
17.6%87.4

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE27°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSLCUSTSI
Usage43%18%13%12%11%3%
MPH94.887.487.180.583.593.7
RHP Avg95.086.986.780.283.394.3
1687
+2.1
+9.9
6.96
28.1%
58.7%
31.7%
30.8%
35.0%
0.264
SliderSL
13.4%87.12406+3.5-3.46.9214.3%47.9%25.0%32.0%26.7%0.371
CurveballCU
12.0%80.52667-9.1-12.37.0019.0%39.5%23.3%34.6%16.0%0.218
SweeperST
10.6%83.52721+2.0-15.06.8829.4%28.9%23.7%29.6%5.9%0.247
SinkerSI
3.4%93.72390+10.8+14.46.8933.3%41.7%25.0%42.9%—0.598

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″SI · 17″CH · 20″ST · 23″SL · 22″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 27″SI · 29″CH · 43″ST · 54″SL · 44″CU · 61″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.19′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSLCUSTSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSLCUSTSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSLCUSTSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.