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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Miguel Rojas

Miguel Rojas

2B / 3B / SS·LAD
Compare
Compare
BF
17
K %
0.0%
BB %
5.9%
xwOBA
.484
PTS
-16
PPG
-8.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
2026202.0000027.0019.100.0%5.9%-5.9%.484.53861.0%40.0%-16-8.00
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

17 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
—
FB Spin
0
—
2025
4
0
5.0
0
0
0
0
12.60
12.70
0.0%
7.1%
-7.1%
.493
.364
71.4%
36.0%
-12
-3.00
2024101.000000.003.100.0%0.0%0.0%.420.250100.0%50.0%22.00
2023303.000006.005.100.0%7.1%-7.1%.284.25060.0%50.0%10.33
Extension
0
4.73
Results
xwOBA
0
.484
Barrel %
4
13.3
Hard-Hit %
0
60.0
K %
0
0.0
BB %
85
5.9
Chase %
40
29.6
Whiff %
0
5.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
-7
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
4
if they swing
Command+
44
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
58
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
50.0%
9 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.005
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.037 better than avg · 2 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.135
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.105 worse than avg · 4 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 18 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
EephusEP
94.4%53.91446+16.7+3.94.880.0%23.5%11.8%15.4%0.0%0.415
OtherFA
5.6%73.81894

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
EPFA
Usage94%6%
MPH53.973.8
RHP Avg——
+16.7
+9.2
5.50
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
—
0.0%
0.239

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTEP · 16″FA · 17″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′EP · 139″FA · 107″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (5.94′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
EPFA-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
EPFA-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
EPFA

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.