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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Miguel Vargas

Miguel Vargas

1B / 3B·CHW
Compare
Compare
PA
304
H
50
HR
7
AVG
.195
xwOBA
.308
PPG
1.66
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202665282.242.373.489.247.39717.4%15.2%2.2%1592183.35—
2025142570.234
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

304 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
11
.308
xBA
0
.208
.317
.400
.166
.321
17.5%
9.8%
7.7%
16
6
322
2.27
—
202471237.150.252.257.107.26624.1%10.5%13.6%53650.92—
202388304.195.309.367.172.30820.1%12.5%7.6%731461.66—
20222450.170.204.255.085.25526.0%4.0%22.0%11271.13—
xSLG
3
.357
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
9
86.5
Median EV
9
89.5
90th % EV
14
102.4
Barrel %
22
6.0
Hard-Hit %
9
31.5
Sweet-Spot %
24
33.5
Bat Speed
Avg
0
—
Median
0
—
90th %
0
—
Plate Discipline
Chase %
90
20.8
Whiff %
64
19.5
K %
53
20.1
BB %
87
12.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
120
≈ 98th pctl
Chase cost
-14.6r
153 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-8.1r
176 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.6%
1,263 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.79
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
145+13%83425+13%16+12%26+30%30+9%22+22%185+28%18+0%26-26%53-15%71-10%48+42%19+0%12+13%32+5%39-30%87-23%79-30%37+26%314+23%26+19%26+19%48-4%52+0%14+7%141+0%9+0%10+11%9+0%8431CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000