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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Miguel Vargas

Miguel Vargas

1B / 3B·CHW
Compare
Compare
PA
237
H
31
HR
5
AVG
.150
xwOBA
.266
PPG
0.92
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202667296.251.379.502.251.40316.6%15.2%1.4%1692263.37—
2025142570.234
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

237 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
0
.266
xBA
0
.180
.317
.400
.166
.321
17.5%
9.8%
7.7%
16
6
322
2.27
—
202471237.150.252.257.107.26624.1%10.5%13.6%53650.92—
202388304.195.309.367.172.30820.1%12.5%7.6%731461.66—
20222450.170.204.255.085.25526.0%4.0%22.0%11271.13—
xSLG
1
.308
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
10
86.2
Median EV
1
87.1
90th % EV
10
101.2
Barrel %
12
4.6
Hard-Hit %
3
26.3
Sweet-Spot %
10
31.6
Bat Speed
Avg
17
67.7
Median
19
69.6
90th %
17
74.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
90
21.8
Whiff %
73
18.7
K %
35
24.1
BB %
73
10.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
114
≈ 93th pctl
Chase cost
-13.6r
143 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-7.2r
148 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.6%
1,009 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.07
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
413+0%6+0%62+20%10+57%14-7%27+21%33+37%19+40%104+24%21-12%33-21%67-22%51-11%54+38%32+0%9+38%29+12%42-34%58-23%69-27%55+31%29+14%7+0%14+32%44+0%60+5%22-12%24+0%102+0%15+0%8+0%12+0%11+0%92CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000