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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Miguel Vargas

Miguel Vargas

1B / 3B·CHW
Compare
Compare
PA
570
H
118
HR
16
AVG
.234
xwOBA
.321
PPG
2.27
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202665282.242.373.489.247.39717.4%15.2%2.2%1592183.35—
2025142570.234
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
29
.321
xBA
18
.235
xSLG
.317
.400
.166
.321
17.5%
9.8%
7.7%
16
6
322
2.27
—
202471237.150.252.257.107.26624.1%10.5%13.6%53650.92—
202388304.195.309.367.172.30820.1%12.5%7.6%731461.66—
20222450.170.204.255.085.25526.0%4.0%22.0%11271.13—
26
.406
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
39
89.7
Median EV
34
92.3
90th % EV
18
103.0
Barrel %
46
9.3
Hard-Hit %
27
40.5
Sweet-Spot %
75
38.3
Bat Speed
Avg
20
68.6
Median
23
70.3
90th %
26
75.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
86
21.5
Whiff %
80
17.6
K %
71
17.5
BB %
66
9.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
119
≈ 97th pctl
Chase cost
-28.7r
300 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-14.9r
298 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.1%
2,371 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.84
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1+0%624441+0%7+0%8+11%18+25%24-8%12+13%15+0%8+44%9-18%34-38%42-22%49-10%42+19%31+18%11+22%23+16%45-28%68-20%92-23%66+32%31+18%11+22%23+26%42+19%53-4%48+0%32+8%123+9%11+6%17+0%12+0%7112CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000