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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #7 of 57

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas · #7
V⁻ -14VORP 38V⁺ 53
Miguel Vargas

Miguel Vargas

1B / 3B·CHW
Compare
Compare
PA
444
H
91
HR
21
AVG
.243
xwOBA
.394
PPG
3.08
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj95409.243.336.433.190.34318.5%11.4%7.1%1572382.50—
2026103444.243
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
95
.394
xBA
69
.268
xSLG
.353
.480
.237
.394
16.7%
13.1%
3.6%
21
11
317
3.08
—
2025142570.234.317.400.166.32117.5%9.8%7.7%1663222.27—
202471237.150.252.257.107.26624.1%10.5%13.6%53650.92—
202388304.195.309.367.172.30820.1%12.5%7.6%731461.66—
20222450.170.204.255.085.25526.0%4.0%22.0%11271.13—
94
.523
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
67
90.4
Median EV
44
92.2
90th % EV
51
105.2
Barrel %
88
14.4
Hard-Hit %
69
45.6
Sweet-Spot %
89
41.0
Bat Speed
Avg
69
72.3
Median
58
72.7
90th %
57
77.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
92
21.8
Whiff %
78
17.4
K %
74
16.7
BB %
86
13.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
114
≈ 91th pctl
Chase cost
-4.5r
39 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.0r
51 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
41.7%
381 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.96
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
3115+25%834+22%9+44%951+43%7-12%16-36%28-8%26-21%1943+33%9-12%24-28%18-21%29-35%17+25%84+11%9+8%13-10%20+9%114+9%11223411CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 381